Wagering practice – Hunting for Daily Doubles
Thanks to reader Kelly for submitting this Penultimate Wager scenario. Let’s say a Daily Double is under the 30th and final clue of Double Jeopardy!.
What should each player wager, should he or she be the lucky finder? Remember: you must wager at least $5 on a Daily Double.
Click here for my thoughts!
Answers to Thursday’s scenario:
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- (1/7) I mean, really. $102 is not a great prize for first place, and the extra nearly 6K is not worth the risk of losing out on another chance to play and make more money.
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- (2/7) John-Clark wants to wager to cover a double-up by Keith. So his minimum is 7,800.
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- (3/7) Keith, similarly, wants to cover an all-in wager by Anne. He must wager at least 2,400.
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- (4/7) Keith also wants to cover John-Clark should the leader make a zero wager. His new minimum is 3,000.
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- (5/7) But he’ll also want to stay above Anne should she wager zero. This leaves him with at most 4,200.
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- (6/7) Anne looks at Keith’s minimum wager against her – 2,400 – and aims to be above that. She’ll need to get it right and wager at least 1,800.
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- (7/7) In the actual game, Anne was the only player to make a rational wager. Had Keith responded incorrectly, John-Clark would have won with a paltry $102.
Wouldn’t the category have some bearing on it? I would be apt to wager a lot more Martian on a wheelhouse category, especially with the advantage of seeing the other four clues in the category to determine if this would be easy or not, than if the category was something like “Trinidadian Amateur Ichthyologists” (http://j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=226)
Well, except for Charlotte. Betting at least $1001 is a no-brainer, regardless of category.
That’s a great question. Yes, it would. But I would argue that there are at most two optimal wagers for each player, regardless of comfort with the category.
I’m wondering if Abby shouldn’t wager $7500? Yes, it risks the lead if wrong but it also means that if missed, it’s a forced lock tie.
Considering that Brandon is going to finish in second if he misses the Daily Double anyways, why not bet it all to send it into a tie?
As to Charlotte, she needs to bet at least $1,001 and hope for second by staying ahead of a Brandon crash.
Interesting thought for Abby’s wager, Will. I hadn’t considered that but it’s certainly plausible.