Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Natalie Lips is looking for her fourth win, which could secure her a spot in this November’s Tournament of Champions.

She’s trailing today, and will need a little help. Here are our scores heading into Final:

Natalie Lips	Mai Kulkarni	Dylan Parson
9,000	5,000	11,700

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Because I don’t have my whiteboard today, we’ll just blaze through the three orders. You can hear me discuss my thoughts in the first off-site video of the season:

First-order wagers

If you notice that Mai’s total (5,000) is less than twice the difference between first and second (5,400), you’ll know she has to get it right to have a shot. That makes things much simpler.

Natalie		Mai		Dylan
9,000		5,000		11,700
9,000		3,001		6,301
0		1,999		5,399
min	max	min	max	min	max
1,000	3,600	400*		6,300
					1,700

Zero-cover wagers

Let’s not mess around with petty mind games in the second-order tonight.

Dylan could wager 1,700, so Natalie would need to wager 4,400 – that would put her out of contention, so I could entertain an all-in wager.

Natalie		Mai		Dylan
9,000		5,000		11,700
9,000		3,001		6,301
0		1,999		5,399
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,700	3,600	400*		6,300	6,700
1,000
4,400*					1,700

What actually happened

Natalie		Mai		Dylan
9,000		5,000		11,700
9,000		3,001		6,301
0		1,999		5,399
min	max			min	max
2,701	3,599	5,000		6,301	6,699
1,001					1,699
9,000

That doesn’t make it an optimal decision, however; it just makes her avoid the “red” grade. I expect most players to bet on themselves in a ‘core’ category like U.S. Presidents.

Stuff you’ve learned from me

Knowing the country of tennis great Rod Laver would have netted you $1,000 tonight. (None of our players got it.)

The Final Jeopardy! clue

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

THE ONLY ELECTION YEAR SINCE 1952 IN WHICH NEITHER MAJOR-PARTY CANDIDATE HAD BEEN PRESIDENT OR VICE PRESIDENT

[spoiler]What is 2008? (Barack Obama and John McCain)[/spoiler]

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