Wednesday, October 14, 2015

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Between baseball and this Jeopardy! episode, there was so much excitement on television tonight!

It’s been a while since I’ve had to do any real math, so it took me a while to remember how everything works on my wagering calculator.

Matt needed the last clue to retake the lead heading into Final. I was hoping Michael would make it a True Daily Double rather than just barely pass Matt, and Matt’s comeback confirmed my fears.

Matt Jackson	Michael Baker	Sally Hatfield
17,800	17,600	7,600

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

U.S. LANDMARKS

I’m afraid to go back and watch tonight’s video to see how many times I mention ‘excitement’ – it’s a lot.

First-order calculations

Matt and Michael are so close that, normally, Matt should go for either (1) the lockout or (2) 199 to force Michael to respond correctly.

However, Sally makes this a spicy situation: Michael can wager to keep her locked out while passing Matt’s pre-Final total, making this a Shoretegic scenario.

Matt		Michael		Sally
17,800		17,600		7,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
14,000			2,400		7,200
			17,200
	2,600

Second-order calculations

If Matt thinks Michael will wager 2,399 or less, he could bet 2,200. (Any doubts as to what he’s going to do?)

Matt		Michael		Sally
17,800		17,600		7,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
14,000			2,000		7,200
2,200	2,600		2,400
			17,200

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Matt and Michael: 200
Michael and Sally: 10,000

Matt		Michael		Sally
17,800		17,600		7,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
14,000		400	2,000		7,200
2,200	2,600		2,400
	200		10,000

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Unfortunately, the J! website gave away that Matt would lose by Thursday – one of Friday’s players is also named Matt, and that’s a no-no (unless it’s in a tournament).

Matt		Michael		Sally
17,800		17,600		7,600
17,401		2,399		7,600
399		15,201		0
min	max	min	max	min	max
14,001		401	1,999		7,199
2,201	2,599		2,399
	199		9,999

As a pointed out in my guest post on the Jeopardy! website, having the lead before Final is a big advantage – the leader wins about three-quarters of the time. Matt’s knowledge base should boost those odds even higher.

Tonight, it just didn’t work out – and Matt leaves Stage 10 with $411,612 plus $2,000 for finishing second. Not bad for three days’ work! Congrats to him and to the ‘giant-killer,’ Michael, and kudos to Matt for taking the high road on his ‘al’ response.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

U.S. LANDMARKS

FOR ITS 50th ANNIVERSARY IN 2012, THE ROOF OF THIS LANDMARK WAS TEMPORARILY REPAINTED ITS ORIGINAL COLOR, GALAXY GOLD

[spoiler]What is the Space Needle?[/spoiler]

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