October 22, 2013

Wagering practice – Don’t let your eyes fool you

This is from a random game in Season 5. The scores might, at first glance, give you the impression of a wager-to-tie situation – but don’t be deceived!

What should each player do?

Check out my thoughts here!

(Thanks to the J! Archive)

Answers to Monday’s scenario:

(click to view as a slideshow)

: (1/14) Did you notice our three players’ scores are equally-spaced? 900 separates first and second, and second and third.

: (2/14) Rule #1: Dave wagers 3,900 to cover Bruce.

: (3/14) Bruce wagers no more than 3,000 so as not to fall below Dave.

: (4/14) Bruce wagers at least 3,000 to cover Faith …

: (5/14) Rule #2: … while Faith, to stay above a Bruce miss, wagers at most 2,100.

: (6/14) This is the same maximum to beat Dave if he’s wrong.

: (7/14) Rule #3: Faith wagers at least 1,800 to cover zero wagers by both Dave and Bruce.

: (8/14) Note that Bruce MUST wager 3,000 since that’s his minimum AND maximum.

: (9/14) Rule #4: Dave can wager no more than 3,900 so as not to fall below Bruce if they’re both wrong.

: (10/14) But that’s already his minimum, so it becomes his ONLY wager.

: (11/14) Corollary #4: the players might have “other” options, assuming optimal play by their opponents. Faith can wager everything to tie Bruce …