Wagering practice – Finding an optimal Penultimate Wager
To kick off October, I’m beginning a new series called The Penultimate Wager. You see, I’m sick of not only bad Final Jeopardy! wagering, but also when someone blows the unique situation of finding a Daily Double on the last clue of Double Jeopardy!.
This scenario comes from a game between two mega-champions: 8-time winner Tom Kavanaugh (who will appear in The Battle of the Decades) and 6-time winner Kevin Marshall.
Kevin is the challenger here, and he’s got a sizable lead over Tom going into the last clue – but the DD belongs to Tom. He wagered 5,201, angling for the lead by a dollar, and locked himself out after his miss.
Keep in mind Rule #0 applies here: the goal is to come back the next day. What would you have wagered as Tom on the category WOMEN POETS?
You might find the concepts in Part Two of my tutorial helpful!
You can find the answer here.
(Thanks to the J! Archive)
Answers to Monday’s scenario:
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- (1/4) Here, I asked you what you would do as Rich, who’s in third place going into Final. To solve this, you first need to figure out what Doug and Thompson might wager.
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- (2/4) Doug, in first place, needs to wager at least 4,900 to guarantee at least a tie with Thompson.
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- (3/4) Thompson, similarly, needs to wager at least 2,200 to guarantee at least a tie with Rich.
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- (4/4) With the other players’ proper wagers, Rich can’t win if either responds correctly. So he looks at what he’ll need to have if they’re both wrong. Doug will have at most 1,400, while Thompson will have at most 3,400. To stay above both of them, Rich can wager no more than 500.
I’ve got a wager of 3400 and tanking the question. While I can’t guarantee leader will offer the tie under normal situations, I’d bet that the leaders bets nothing when it guarantees he comes back!
I agree, Will! Although you can’t guarantee the leader will wager rationally, it’s still very likely.
My analysis is on today’s challenge: https://thefinalwager.com/2013/10/02/final-jeopardy-wagering-practice-02-october-2013/