Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Wednesday, April 13, 2016

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We had an awful Final Jeopardy! clue last night… let’s see if the writers redeem themselves here.

Man, that CENTRAL AMERICAN CAPITALS category was $6,000 waiting to be plucked from the Tree of Trebek – or perhaps much more, given a Daily Double showed up.

Carter Spires (1x)	Pamela Stewart	Christian Maher
10,200	12,000	7,600

Other than that (and the cribbage clue!), we had a good game, and we might have some mind games with tonight’s deciding category:

FAMOUS HOTELS

How many hotels could there be?

First-order calculations

Everyone’s still in it, and Christian can benefit from a tough clue.

Carter		Pamela		Christian
10,200		12,000		7,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
5,000	6,600	8,400		1,200	2,400
		3,200			4,000

Second-order calculations

There are some alternatives, however.

Carter		Pamela		Christian
10,200		12,000		7,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
5,000	6,600	8,400		1,200	2,400
	3,000	4,800			400
	200		1,600	2,800	4,000

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Pamela and Carter: 1,800
Pamela and Christian: 4,400
Carter and Christian: 2,600

Carter		Pamela		Christian
10,200		12,000		7,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
5,000	5,200	8,400	8,800	1,200	2,400
1,800	2,600	4,800			400
	200		1,600	2,800	4,000

What actually happened

Carter		Pamela		Christian
10,200		12,000		7,600
5,001		8,401		7,599
5,199		3,599		1
min	max	min	max	min	max
5,001	5,199	8,401	8,799	1,201	2,399
1,801	2,599	4,801			399
	199		1,599	2,801	3,999

Christian cost himself a victory with his large wager; instead, Carter has now won 2 games and $31,200.

I’m not a fan of video Final Jeopardy! clues, but this one seemed fair to me. I don’t know if my spelling mistake would have passed muster with the judges, though. (Should have gone phonetically.)

The Final Jeopardy! clue

FAMOUS HOTELS

THE PAINTING SEEN HERE, “A VICIOUS CIRCLE”, HANGS IN THIS HOTEL IN THE ROOM THAT’S PORTRAYED IN THE PAINTING

[spoiler]What is the Algonquin Hotel?[/spoiler]

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