Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
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If Erin Bowers fails to defend tonight, we will certainly set a new record for longest streak without a 5-time champion: 102 games.
Before Michelle nabbed that last $2,000 clue, Erin had a much better shot; now, I’m afraid she might be out of luck.
|
Erin Bowers (1x) |
Todd Giese |
Michelle Bulger |
| 7,000 | 16,400 | 15,800 |
Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
| STATE CAPITAL GEOGRAPHY |
This is the Strong Form of Shore’s Conjecture.
My hunch here was we’d see a clue about the state capital with the highest elevation. (Here are some other notable state capital facts.)
First-order calculations
Todd almost has to go big, while both he and Michelle can keep Erin locked out.
| Erin |
Todd |
Michelle | |||
| 7,000 | 16,400 | 15,800 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 5,800 | 15,200 | 1,800 | |||
| 14,600 | |||||
| 2,400 | |||||
Second-order calculations
Here are the Shoretegic mind games.
| Erin |
Todd |
Michelle | |||
| 7,000 | 16,400 | 15,800 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 5,800 | 15,200 | 1,800 | |||
| 1,200 | 2,400 | 600 | |||
| 14,600 | |||||
Zero wagers
Score differences:
Todd and Michelle: 600
Todd and Erin: 9,400
Michelle and Erin: 8,800
| Erin |
Todd |
Michelle | |||
| 7,000 | 16,400 | 15,800 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 5,800 | 15,200 | 1,200 | 1,800 | ||
| 1,200 | 2,400 | 600 | 600 | ||
| 600 | 8,800 | ||||
What actually happened
| Erin | Todd | Michelle | |||
| 7,000 | 16,400 | 15,800 | |||
| 1,000 | 15,201 | 1,799 | |||
| 8,000 | 31,601 | 17,599 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 5,799 | 15,201 | 1,201 | 1,799 | ||
| 1,201 | 2,399 | 600 | 601 | ||
| 599 | 8,799 | ||||
Todd could have won it with the Shoretegic wager… but he (rightly) took things into his own hands, and it paid off for him.
Our players are 6/6 on Final Jeopardy! this week. C’mon, writers – make ’em trickier!
Season 6 of Archer is now on Netflix, so that’s where I’ll be the rest of the night, I guess. (I have a thing for it, as you might know.)
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| STATE CAPITAL GEOGRAPHY |
| OF THE 5 U.S. STATE CAPITALS THAT BEGIN WITH THE LETTER “A”, THE ONE THAT IS FARTHEST NORTH |
[spoiler]What is Augusta, Maine?[/spoiler]
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