Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Thursday, March 24, 2016

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Our champ defended her crown last night using an unorthodox wager. Will tonight’s opponents take advantage of this knowledge?

A zero wager would be perfectly feasible from Claudia’s position tonight:

Claudia Stucke (2x)	Vivek Srikrishnan	Sarah Thompson
9,000	15,200	13,000

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

19th CENTURY AMERICANS

Now, on to the analysis.

First-order calculations

Amazingly, no one has to wager everything here.

Claudia		Vivek		Sarah
9,000		15,200		13,000
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
3,400	4,600	10,800		5,000	8,600
	1,000
		2,800

Second-order calculations

Mind games abound!

Claudia		Vivek		Sarah
9,000		15,200		13,000
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
3,400	4,600	10,800		5,000	8,600
	1,000	2,800		600	3,000
			1,600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Vivek and Sarah: 2,200
Vivek and Claudia: 6,200
Sarah and Claudia: 4,000

Claudia		Vivek		Sarah
9,000		15,200		13,000
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
4,000	4,600	10,800		5,000	8,000
	1,000	2,800	4,400	2,200	3,000
			1,600

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Claudia		Vivek		Sarah
9,000		15,200		13,000
4,001		10,801		3,999
4,999		4,399		16,999
min	max	min	max	min	max
4,001	4,599	10,801		5,001	7,999
	999	2,801	4,399	2,201	2,999
			1,599

Sarah was thinking along the same lines I was – that Claudia might wager zero.

She would have been slightly better off wagering 2,999 (just in case Claudia went for 1,000) but, as it turns out, she is now taking home $1,000 more.

You might have gotten tonight’s Final thanks to my This Day in History post on the topic.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

19th CENTURY AMERICANS

IN 1872 HE WROTE HIS THESIS “DISEASES OF THE TEETH” & SOON AFTER MOVED WEST TO A DRIER CLIMATE FOR HIS HEALTH

[spoiler]Who was Doc Holliday?[/spoiler]

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