Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Friday, March 18, 2016

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Tonight, I demonstrate why sometimes pre-calling Final Jeopardy! can come back to haunt you.

I was hoping Aurora would go bigger on those two Daily Doubles – instead, she’s in second place heading into Final.

Gwen Niksic (1x)	Steve Stoffle	Aurora Nibley
15,800	8,800	15,600

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

LITERARY DETECTIVES

This is pretty straightforward.

First-order calculations

Gwen has to go big, and Aurora has a large range to start.

Gwen		Steve		Aurora
15,800		8,800		15,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
15,400		4,800	8,400	2,000	15,200
1,800

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Gwen and Aurora: 200
Gwen and Steve: 7,000
Aurora and Steve: 6,800

Gwen		Steve		Aurora
15,800		8,800		15,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
15,400		7,200	8,400	2,000	6,800
1,800
	200

Steve is forced into that range right there but could still win on a triple-stumper if Aurora goes for broke.

What actually happened

Gwen		Steve		Aurora
15,800		8,800		15,600
15,401		8,799		8,000
399		17,599		7,600
min	max	min	max	min	max
15,401		7,201	8,399	2,001	6,799
1,801
	199

Had I been Steve, I’d have withheld some money to stay above Gwen’s lockout wager – but it doesn’t matter, as he’s the champ.

Have a great weekend!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

LITERARY DETECTIVES

HIS CREATOR SOMETIMES FOUND HIM A “DETESTABLE, BOMBASTIC, TIRESOME LITTLE CREATURE”

[spoiler]Who is Hercule Poirot? (author: Agatha Christie)[/spoiler]

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