Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Thursday, March 10, 2016
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We seem to be having a lot of wordplay categories tonight.
Low-scoring game, but there’s some math to be done.
|
Katrina Mundinger (1x) |
Norine Noonan |
Danielle Stillman-Diederich |
| 9,600 | 5,800 | 7,000 |
Along the vocab lines, we’ll be playing this category:
| WORDS & THEIR USE |
Now, on to the analysis.
First-order calculations
Norine can wager small…
| Katrina |
Norine |
Danielle | |||
| 9,600 | 5,800 | 7,000 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 4,400 | 600 | 4,600* | |||
| 1,800 | |||||
| 2,000 | |||||
Second-order calculations
…but that could lead to some mind games.
| Katrina |
Norine |
Danielle | |||
| 9,600 | 5,800 | 7,000 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 4,400 | 600 | 4,600* | |||
| 4,600* | 600 | ||||
| 800 | |||||
Zero wagers
Score differences:
Katrina and Danielle: 2,600
Katrina and Norine: 3,800
Danielle and Norine: 1,200
| Katrina |
Norine |
Danielle | |||
| 9,600 | 5,800 | 7,000 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 4,400 | 5,200 | 600 | 4,600* | ||
| 4,600* | 600 | ||||
| 800 | |||||
What actually happened
| Katrina | Norine | Danielle | |||
| 9,600 | 5,800 | 7,000 | |||
| 5,000 | 4,000 | 5,000 | |||
| 14,600 | 1,800 | 12,000 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 4,401 | 5,199 | 599 | 7,000 | ||
| 5,800 | 599 | ||||
| 799 | |||||
Not the best wagers, but far from the worst. Katrina has now won 2 games and $22,000.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| WORDS & THEIR USE |
| ORIGINALLY AN ELECTRONICS WORD FOR AN OUTPUT SIGNAL RETURNING AS INPUT, TODAY IT MEANS “CRITICISM” OR “EVALUATION” |

This is an example of “Type B” Stratton’s Dilemma; Norine has more than Katrina’s MSBIW but can’t cover a zero wager from Danielle without falling below.