Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Friday, February 12, 2016 (College Finals #2)
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Hey, it’s one of the few times I have a good reason to bring this thing out.
If you are unfamiliar with how two-day total-point affairs work, have a look at this post.
To find out who is really in the lead in this format, we need to calculate the maximum possible total for each player.
|
Sarah Dubnik |
Niki Peters |
Sam Deutsch |
|
| Day 2 pre-FJ |
4,800 | 16,400 | 8,600 |
| Day 1 Total |
22,001 | 18,600 | 22,000 |
| Maximum Total | 31,601 | 51,400 | 39,200 |
| Pitt | UC Berkeley | USC |
Niki’s got her hands firmly on the wheel, but it’s technically anyone’s game.
We’re dealing with this Final Jeopardy! category:
| THE U.S. SENATE |
The full analysis is in the video – and it’s a doozy.
What actually happened
| Sarah | Niki | Sam | |||
| 4,800 | 16,400 | 8,600 | |||
| 4,800 | 3,350 | 8,600 | |||
| 0 | 13,050 | 17,200 | |||
| 22,001 | 18,600 | 22,000 | |||
| 22,001 | 31,650 | 39,200 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 4,000 | 4,201 | 7,800 | |||
| 3,398 | 4,401 | ||||
I like Niki’s wager, even though it’s something I probably wouldn’t consider myself. It keeps Sarah at bay (guaranteeing Niki at least $50,000); it still forces Sam to get it right; and it wins on a double-get if Sam wagers something like 4,401.
Congrats to Sam on winning the tournament, the $100,000 top prize, and a berth in the next ToC. And congrats to all of the players for one of the best-played College Championships I’ve had the pleasure to watch!
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| THE U.S. SENATE |
| DURING HIS SENATE SERVICE, WHICH LASTED FROM 1973 TO JANUARY 2009, THIS MAN CAST 12,810 VOTES |
[spoiler]Who is Joe Biden?[/spoiler]
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hey, sam here!
I actually tried to change my wager after impulsively locking in my all or nothing bet – I figured there was a significant probability that Sarah would be also betting everything, and if we both got it wrong that would cost me the 25k difference between 2nd and 3rd. I was gonna change it to 8958, which looking back would have been a more optimal wager – luckily I got it right and it didn’t matter but I had kind of a minor internal freakout when I realized haha
I think you mean 8598?
And Sam, if you didn’t catch Monday’s recap video, I recommend it – it’s clear that Keith enjoyed the College Championship so much that he’s having trouble letting go.
Hey, Sam! Thanks for stopping by, and congrats on winning the tournament. Has the trophy fallen apart yet? Be careful, the crystal ball on top of mine falls off for no good reason!