Wednesday, December 2, 2015

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Thanks to some questionable programming decisions by ABC, Wednesday’s episode aired at 2:05 a.m. in New York.

Griping over, let’s get on to the important stuff: will we have our first three-time champion of the new qualification cycle?

Joyce has the lead, but it’s a tight one – and a tricky scenario.

Joyce Hshieh	Nicole Stanley	Brad Rudy
12,000	5,600	11,400

Our players will deal with this category:

NEWLY INDEPENDENT NATIONS

First-order calculations

Joyce needs to go really big to cover Brad. But Brad can also wager very small to guarantee a win against Nicole. (Joyce could, too, but we’ll see why she’d want to wager differently.)

Joyce		Nicole		Brad
12,000		5,600		11,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
10,800			4,400		10,200
					200
	800

Second-order calculations

If Joyce wants to stay small, she should cap her wager at 400 – that way, if Brad is sneaky and goes for 199, she’ll beat him no matter what. Nicole might wager everything to account for some of the stranger plays available.

Joyce		Nicole		Brad
12,000		5,600		11,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
10,800			4,400	1,000	1,400
	400		3,200		9,400
		4,800*			200

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Joyce and Brad: 600
Joyce and Nicole: 6,400
Brad and Nicole: 5,800

Joyce		Nicole		Brad
12,000		5,600		11,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
10,800			4,400	1,000	1,400
	400		3,200		5,800
		4,800*			200

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Joyce		Nicole		Brad
12,000		5,600		11,400
801		5,600		5,000
12,801		11,200		6,400
min	max	min	max	min	max
10,801			3,199		5,799
	399		4,399	1,001	1,399
		5,600			199

Joyce made a mistake that’s very easy to do: she added a dollar when she should have subtracted a dollar. That’s why I always separate my minimum and maximum wagers into columns; it makes it simple to do what I always write after posting zero-cover wagers in complicated situations.

In any case, she has now won 3 games and $39,403. Congrats, Joyce, and welcome to the leaderboard!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

NEWLY INDEPENDENT NATIONS

PRIOR TO SOUTH SUDAN, THIS EUROPEAN COUNTRY WAS THE MOST RECENT ONE TO GAIN INDEPENDENCE AND BE RECOGNIZED BY THE UNITED STATES

[spoiler]What is Kosovo?[/spoiler]

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