Tuesday, December 1, 2015
[php snippet=37]
It’s been a long day, and now my camera isn’t connecting properly! Happy December to me.
All right, got it to work, finally.
More on the video once I can upload it. At least we have a straightforward situation…
|
Joyce Hshieh |
Shea Zellweger |
Frankie Lynne |
| 15,000 | 1,201 | 9,200 |
Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
| THE MOVIES |
First-order calculations
Joyce should wager 3,401 to cover Frankie. Frankie might as well wager everything – but at the very, very least, 2,400 or 2,401.
| Joyce |
Shea |
Frankie | |||
| 15,000 | 1,201 | 9,200 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 3,400 | 2,400* | ||||
What actually happened
| Joyce | Shea | Frankie | |||
| 15,000 | 1,201 | 9,200 | |||
| 3,401 | 1,200 | 2,000 | |||
| 18,401 | 2,401 | 7,200 | |||
| min | max | ||||
| 3,401 | 5,799 | 9,200 | |||
| 8,199 | |||||
Alas, she did not. I guess I can take solace in the outcome, not that I ever do that.
Congrats to Joyce, who has now won 2 games and $26,602.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| THE MOVIES |
| THE TITLE OF THIS 2009 BEST PICTURE OSCAR NOMINEE ALLUDES TO THE LEFT TACKLE’S JOB IN A FOOTBALL GAME |
[spoiler]What is The Blind Side?[/spoiler]
[php snippet=37]
This is one where I think you cut short your analysis too soon.
Yes, Joyce should bet 3,401 to control her own destiny. And Frankie should bet at least 4,400 to cover the case where Joyce misses (or better yet, 5,801 which covers a zero bet by Joyce).
But Frankie should certainly not bet everything because it would needlessly risk losing 2nd to Shea. Frankie should bet no more than 6,997.
6,798 at most would have been fine, I suppose, and I think I mention that in the video, but I don’t care about second place. I care only about winning and maximizing the chances of doing so.
I agree with Keith – purely 2nd/3rd place considerations should be on the same order as for example the exact amount of your winnings. Here I wouldn’t have faulted Frankie for preserving 2nd, but I wouldn’t ever consider it wrong for a trailer in a crush to bet it all either.