Wednesday, May 13, 2015 – Celebrity Jeopardy! #3

Celebrity Jeopardy! preview

Greetings from not-so-sunny LA! Caught Wednesday’s game at O’Brien’s in Santa Monica before heading to the back room for pub quiz.

This was an exciting one between the two gentlemen – but Mo could have made it much more so with a True Daily Double on that slam-dunk $800 clue, or by getting that last $1,600 clue to pull into a tie with John.

Alas.

Mo Rocca	Wendi McLendon-Covey	John Berman
Inner-City Scholarship Fund	WomenShelter of Long Beach	Friends of Karen
20,800	4,400	22,400

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

FAMOUS NAMES

Here’s everyone’s favorite poll again:

This is the Strong Form of Shore’s Conjecture.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Mo doubles his score, he’ll have 41,600.

To cover this all-in wager, John will need to wager 19,200.

Mo		Wendi		John
20,800		4,400		22,400
20,800				19,200
41,600				41,600
min	max	min	max	min	max
				19,200

An incorrect response with that wager will leave John with 3,200.

To stay above his total, Mo can wager up to 17,600.

Wendi can wager up to 1,200.

Mo		Wendi		John
20,800		4,400		22,400
17,600		1,200		19,200
3,200		3,200		3,200
min	max	min	max	min	max
	17,600		1,200	19,200

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Wendi at 8,800.

To stay above her, Mo can wager at most 12,000.

John could wager at most 13,600.

Mo		Wendi		John
20,800		4,400		22,400
12,000		4,400		13,600
8,800		8,800		8,800
min	max	min	max	min	max
	12,000		1,200	19,200
	17,600
					13,600

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Mo		Wendi		John
20,800		4,400		22,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	12,000		1,200	19,200
	17,600
					13,600

Second-order calculations

Shoretegic wagers

If Mo chooses to stay above a double-up by Wendi, he will have at most 32,800.

John can cover that with a wager of 10,400.

Mo		Wendi		John
20,800		4,400		22,400
12,000				10,400
32,800				32,800
min	max	min	max	min	max
	12,000		1,200	19,200
	17,600
				10,400	13,600

To stay above his “Shoretegic” total, Mo can wager up to 8,800.

Mo		Wendi		John
20,800		4,400		22,400
8,800				10,400
12,000				32,800
min	max	min	max	min	max
	8,800		1,200	19,200
	12,000
	17,600			10,400	13,600

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Mo		Wendi		John
20,800		4,400		22,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	8,800		1,200	19,200
	12,000
	17,600			10,400	13,600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
John and Mo: 1,600
John and Wendi: 18,000
Mo and Wendi: 16,400

Mo		Wendi		John
20,800		4,400		22,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
3,200	8,800		1,200	19,200
	12,000
	15,200			10,400	13,600

We’ll restrict Mo’s max to 15,200, in case Wendi goes for that 1,200 wager. (I didn’t feel like adding in that calculation earlier, but I see now it’s necessary.)

What actually happened

$41,600		$10,000		$50,000
Mo		Wendi		John
20,800		4,400		22,400
20,800		2,000		20,500
41,600		6,400		42,900
min	max	min	max	min	max
3,201	8,799		1,199	19,201
	11,999			10,401	13,599
	15,199

I’m glad Mo’s gamble worked out. Maybe he thought John would wimp out on the lockout wager; otherwise, it offers a much lower expected value than something smaller.

Assuming coin flips for Final Jeopardy!, even with a wager of $11,999, the all-in bet results in an average of around $8,000 less for his charity. The big difference comes when both gentlemen get the clue wrong.

	Wager $20,800	Wager $11,999	Difference
Both right	$41,600	$32,799	+$8,801
Just Mo right	$50,000	$50,000	$0
Just John right	$10,000	$10,000	$0
Both wrong	$10,000	$50,000	-$40,000
Average	$27,900	$35,700	$7,800

Note that had this clue been a triple stumper, Wendi would have won, despite her own bad wager. Ay yi yi!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

FAMOUS NAMES

IN MARCH 2012 THIS DIRECTOR TWEETED, “JUST ARRIVED AT THE OCEAN’S DEEPEST PT. HITTING BOTTOM NEVER FELT SO GOOD”

[spoiler]Who is James Cameron?[/spoiler]

Celebrity Jeopardy! preview