Wagering practice – Not a great first impression
Kara Spak is our third and final focus of this week’s Battle of the Decades Fan Voting crew. (The other two were college players and I’d rather not get into tournament play quite yet.)
This is from her very first game. Some of you will recognize her mistake instantly. What is it, and what should each player have done?
Click here for the answer!
(Thanks to the J! Archive)
Answers to Wednesday’s scenario:
(click to view as a slideshow)
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- (1/11) Tom likes the category, but is wagering everything a good move here if he wants to come back the next day?
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- (2/11) Rule #1: Bob wagers 15,800 to cover Tom.
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- (3/11) Rule #2: Tom risks no more than 13,200 so as not to fall below Bob.
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- (4/11) Rule #3: Tom also wagers at least 2,600 to cover a zero wager by Bob.
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- (5/11) Now for Tom and Julia. Rule #1: If Julia goes all in, Tom will need to wager at least 4,000 to cover her.
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- (6/11) Rule #2: For her part, Julia must wager at least 3,200 to get into contention should Tom miss.
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- (7/11) Rule #3: Tom can wager no more than 7,200 so as not to fall below a zero wager by Julia.
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- (8/11) Finally, first vs. third. Rule #2: Julia can wager no more than 6,000 to stay above Bob if he’s wrong.
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- (9/11) Now we tweak based on Rule #3. Bob’s “unsafe” 2,600 wager would keep him above a zero by Tom …
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- (10/11) … and will put him at 23,600 if he’s right. Tom can cover this possibility with a wager of 5,200.
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- (11/11) In the end, all three players wagered too much. (Julia’s overbet was the worst of the three.)
Hi Keith–Thanks for the always thoughtful analysis. For what it’s worth, in this game I not only liked that category, I loved it. I’m not sure of a category, besides 70s Baseball or Watergate, that I’d feel more confident about, so I’d still go big in this game. Now my last game, when I again went almost all in from second in a vague category: that was a mistake! But I was tired.
Hi, Tom! Thanks for stopping by, and for commenting. I gotta say your QF wager was one of the most brilliant I’ve ever seen.
The three FJs I missed were in my two favorite categories: geography and history. As a result, I’m wary of overbetting even in a wheelhouse area – hell, even Ken Jennings missed a Final in “Comic Books”.
Just playing one game is pretty exhausting, so I can only imagine the fatigue that comes with the fifth game of the day.
Best of luck in the Fan Voting!
Keith
Yeah, after that bet I do remember seeing an Ian Fleming question I didn’t know and thinking, “Oh, that’s 20th Century Novels too.” But I’d do it again, partly out of sheer pride and fun. And thanks about the voting. Seems like an uphill battle, but we’ll see…