Wagering practice – Second place in a barn-burner
Want to see how you’re doing after watching Part One of my tutorial? Here’s another sample scenario.
In her fourth game, Larissa Kelly found herself in unfamiliar territory: second place. What do you think she should wager? Hint: focus only on what she should do against Will.
Click here for the answer!
Answers to Thursday’s scenario:
(click to view as a slideshow)
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- (1/6) I insisted that this situation made me mad. But why, exactly?
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- (2/6) Let’s back up to the beginning. (Sandip, having a negative score, will not be around for Final.)
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- (3/6) Rule #1: If Paula goes all-in and gets it right, she’ll have 17,200. Lo and behold, that’s already Nichole’s total. So Nichole should wager at most zero.
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- (4/6) Rule #2: If Nichole gets it wrong, she’ll still have 17,200. To match this total, Paula will need to wager at least 8,600.
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- (5/6) Notice, though, that Nichole cannot wager less than zero, and Paula cannot wager more than 8,600, as she cannot wager more than what she has.
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- (6/6) Therefore, Nichole must wager zero, and be content with her victory, even if it’s shared with Paula. Paula must wager everything and hope she gets it right.
Let us consider what the leader Sara would do if Larissa doubled up. If Larissa gets it correct and bets it all, she would have $37,600. This means Sara should Wager at least $37,600-$20,600=$17,000 to cover Larissa. If Sara is wrong and makes the shutout bet, she will fall to at most $3,600. If Will were not a factor, Larissa should bet up to $15,200. However, he is, and has more than half of Larissa’s score. If Will bets it all and gets it right, he would have $24,000. Therefore, Larissa needs to bet at least $5,200 to cover Will’s doubled score. If Larissa gets it wrong and only bets to cover Will, she would still have up to $13,600, which is more than Will’s pre-Final Jeopardy! score. Therefore, Larissa should bet at least $5,200 to cover Will’s doubled score, but no more than $6,799 to force Will to be correct on Final to win.
Very nice work, Chao!