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September 13, 2016

Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Tuesday, September 13, 2016

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Game two of Season 33; let’s hope our players wager better than in the first.

Similar scores to last night, but a little spicier.

Annie

Busiek (1x)

André

Hereford

Elizabeth

Troyer

10,200 7,000 8,700

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

19th CENTURY MILITARY MEN

Now, on to the analysis.

First-order calculations

Elizabeth is just barely closer to Annie (in first) than André (in third), so she has some wiggle room with her wager.

Annie
André
Elizabeth
10,200 7,000 8,700
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
7,200 3,600 5,300 5,700

Second-order calculations

Some minor mind-game possibilities between our two trailers.

Annie
André
Elizabeth
10,200 7,000 8,700
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
7,200 3,600 5,300 5,700
200 1,900

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Annie and Elizabeth: 1,500
Annie and André: 3,200
Elizabeth and André: 1,700

Annie
André
Elizabeth
10,200 7,000 8,700
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
7,200 3,400 3,600 5,300 5,700
200 1,900
1,500 1,700

André also has a tight range of optimal plays.

What actually happened

Annie André Elizabeth
10,200 7,000 8,700
8,701 7,000 5,301
1,499 0 3,399
min max min max min max
7,201 3,401 3,599 5,301 5,699
199 1,901
1,499 1,699

And here’s the rub of knowing how to wager: André coulda been the champ.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

19th CENTURY MILITARY MEN
IN 1895 HE WROTE TO HIS FAMILY THAT WITH “SUPERHUMAN STRENGTH” HE WOULD “DISCOVER THE TRUTH…ON THE TRAGIC AFFAIR”

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – September 13, 2016
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