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June 14, 2016

Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Tuesday, June 14, 2016

previous week same week following week
6 7 8 9 10 13 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 24

I haven’t yet watched Monday’s game, but that’s not going to stop me from keeping things going!


Here are our scores heading into Final:

Hunter

Appler (4x)

Dana

Thurmond Bruno

Zane

Dowty

20,100 18,000 1,200

I’ll get around to last night’s video when I get a copy of the game. Judging from the new $1 at the end of his total, it looks like Hunter had a contest on his hands, just like he does here tonight.

Notes on tonight’s episode:

notes 20160614

As of the last time I ran the stats, a 4-time champion has a 62.8% chance of winning his fifth game – as opposed to just over 40% for a 1-time champ. For some reason, the fifth game is a significant outlier in terms of winning percentage.

Also, if you want to remember the order of Henry VIII’s wives, keep in mind the acronym I derived from their namesCAJACC (pronounced to rhyme with Pat Sajak).

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

CONTEMPORARIES

First-order calculations

Hunter has to go really big once again (and we’ll probably hear a “whoa!” from the audience if he’s right).

Hunter
Dana
Zane
20,100 18,000 1,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
15,900 17,700 13,800

Subsequent wagers

Dana should consider restricting her wager just in case Hunter gets tricky. We also have some zero-cover wagers to deal with.

Hunter
Dana
Zane
20,100 18,000 1,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
15,900 17,700 4,200 9,600
2,100 13,800
11,700

What actually happened

Hunter Dana Zane
20,100 18,000 1,200
15,901 10,000 1,000
36,001 28,000 2,200
min max min max
15,901 17,699 4,201 9,599
2,099 13,799
11,701

We got the big wager, we got the correct response, and we got the “whoa!”. Hunter will go for #6 tomorrow, hoping to increase his winnings from $129,002. (Five-timers win their sixth game only about 43% of the time.)

The Final Jeopardy! clue

CONTEMPORARIES
IN AN 1864 LETTER, HE CONGRATULATED ABRAHAM LINCOLN ON REELECTION ON BEHALF OF “THE WORKINGMEN OF EUROPE”

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – June 14, 2016
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4 Comments
  1. Fringe theory: The “Whoa!” is actually a cry of exasperation by the show’s accountant, who is now required to find more money to pay out to the winner.

  2. Matthew Forrest permalink

    That’s bizarre that it didn’t air for you on Monday, I live in Long Island near Queens and it did for me.

  3. Matthew Forrest permalink

    This was the first FJ in a while where I saw the potential for some pretty deep mind games – it reminded me of a ‘leveling-war’ in poker. The value I see in the 11,700 wager is it opens up the possibility of winning on wrong-wrong if Dana goes for the high side of her range where as 15,900 shouldn’t allow that versus a rational wager. I would certainly cap at 9,600 if I was Dana and if Hunter thinks this is likely he can wager as little as 7,500 in which Dana could cap at 5,400 and then Hunter could wager 3,300. I wouldn’t go past the 5,400 level if I was Dana though to cover the 4,200 minimum. I think the 11,700 level for Hunter makes a lot of sense if you think Dana will wager rationally (which as we know you can’t always rely on). I’m sure game theory wise going for the lockout is the dominant strategy though since a clairvoyant opponent could unilaterally increase their excepted value by always going big if you don’t.

  4. Matthew Forrest permalink

    Expected value*

What do you think?