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May 5, 2016

Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Thursday, May 5, 2016 (Teachers QF #4)

2016 Teachers Tournament
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

I had some issues with technology on Thursday, so I’m sad to say there’s no video. But there are some statistics!

The Final Wager – May 5, 2016

For the second day in a row, a lock from the champ’s position:

Peter

Buchholz

Tenaya

Snider

Terrie

Trebilcock

17,000 5,600 7,800

But remember we still have those four wild card positions available.

19th CENTURY AMERICANS

Suggested wagers

Based on past non-winning scores in Teachers Tournament quarterfinals.

Peter Tenaya Terrie
17,000 5,600 7,800
20% confidence 0 600
30% confidence 4,900 6,100
40% confidence 4,900 6,100
50% confidence 4,900 6,100
60% confidence 4,900 6,100
70% confidence 4,900 6,100
80% confidence 4,900 6,100

I wonder if tonight’s players had access to these data points, because…

What actually happened

Peter Tenaya Terrie
17,000 5,600 7,800
0 5,000 6,500
17,000 600 1,300

…they were very, very close to the recommended numbers.

Our wild-card cut-off could be as low as 600, but it won’t be higher than 5,000. Looks like my lowball estimate was the right one.

We now know the identities of six semifinalists. Who will round out our group of nine tomorrow?

Quarterfinal winners:

  1. Chris Tempro
  2. Jason Sterlacci
  3. Jill Gilbert
  4. Peter Buchholz

Wild-card race:

  1. Lauren Gilmore – 11,000 (clinched)
  2. Nicole Throckmorton – 5,000 (clinched)
  3. Terrie Trebilcock – 1,300 (52%)
  4. Tenaya Snider – 600 (7%)
  5. Dianne Lee – 100
  6. Hannah Krug – 1
  7. Greg Greenzweig – 0
  8. Ian Miller – 0

Percentage represents probability of advancing based on past Teachers Tournament data.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

19th CENTURY AMERICANS
IN 1855 HE WROTE, “THE PUBLIC APPEARS DISPOSED TO BE AMUSED EVEN WHEN THEY ARE CONSCIOUS OF BEING DECEIVED”

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – May 5, 2016
2016 Teachers Tournament
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

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