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May 2, 2016

Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Monday, May 2, 2016 (Teachers QF #1)

2016 Teachers Tournament
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

Wild cards are back – how will this year’s batch of Teachers Tournament competitors navigate them?

They might come into play tonight…

Lauren

Gilmore

Dianne

Lee

Chris

Tempro

9,200 2,600 12,400

…with this Final Jeopardy! category:

WORD ORIGINS

Now, what do you think the wild-card cutoff will be? I ran four simulations and got four wildly different results: $15,700, $10,600, $11,800, and $4,100.

My guess is $10,600; the meta-cutoff over the past five tournaments is $11,700. More on all of this methodology later.

Suggested wagers

These are based on (an admittedly small amount of) data from past non-winners in Teachers Tournament quarterfinals:

Lauren Dianne Chris
9,200 2,600 12,400
20% confidence 0 500 400
30% confidence 0 500 400
40% confidence 0 500 400
50% confidence 3,600 2,500 400
60% confidence 7,400 2,500 4,900
70% confidence 8,900 2,500 6,001
80% confidence 8,900 2,500 6,001

What actually happened

Lauren Dianne Chris
9,200 2,600 12,400
1,800 2,500 6,001
11,000 100 18,401

Chris goes for the lockout, and Lauren plays it safe. We’ll see if her total is good enough for a wild card later this week; right now she looks good against historical numbers.

Quarterfinal winners:

  1. Chris Tempro

Wild-card race:

  1. Lauren Gilmore – 11,000 (74%)
  2. Dianne Lee – 100 (<1%)

Percentage represents probability of advancing based on past Teachers Tournament data.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

WORD ORIGINS
FROM THE GREEK FOR “ALL VIEWS”, THIS WORD WAS FIRST USED TO DESCRIBE A LARGE 1787 PAINTING OF EDINBURGH BY ARTIST ROBERT BARKER

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – May 2, 2016
2016 Teachers Tournament
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

2 Comments
  1. Kelly permalink

    I think each day for this tournament I’ll post what I would’ve done from each player’s position:

    Chris – If he likes the category go for the lockout – if not then bet 399 or less in case Lauren makes a “small” wager as described below.
    Lauren – I see three options – smallest one is the usual 2/3 wager of no more than 2,800 to beat Chris if he wagers to cover, medium one is 3,601 to 4,000* to cover Chris’s “small” wager while still keeping Dianne at bay, large one is to go for it all or almost all for an almost guaranteed advance if right.
    Dianne – Pretty much no choice but to put most or all of it on line unless the category is really not her cup of tea (regardless the odds are slim).

    *Given the rule for breaking wildcard ties, and that a score on the downside with that won’t be an automatic win (unless Chris makes a really bad wager), exactly 4,000 is acceptable.

  2. Kelly permalink

    Another point about this game – normally the “weak form” of Shore’s Conjecture shouldn’t have any effect on 1st and 2nd’s wager, but in a QF like this one it could. In this game, Lauren could wager the maximum that she could while keeping Dianne locked out (in a regular game if she didn’t want to follow the 2/3 rule then she should just bet it all, but since there is the race for the wildcards Lauren has that middle range I described in my last post).

What do you think?