Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Thursday, March 31, 2016
| previous week | same week | following week | ||||||||||||
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
I’m assuming tonight’s wagering situation is an early April Fool’s joke.
For the third time since tiebreakers were instituted, we have a tie heading into Final.
|
Todd Giese (2x) |
Fariha Ali |
Laura Mogul |
| 11,000 | 10,400 | 11,000 |
Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
| THE OSCARS |
With Fariha so close to our leaders, they have very little choice.
Tied analysis
| Todd |
Fariha |
Laura | |||
| 11,000 | 10,400 | 11,000 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 11,000 | 1,200 | 9,200 | 11,000 | ||
| 0 | 0 | ||||
You might notice in the video I made a mistake – by subtracting 600 from Fariha’s amount, I calculated the minimum wager for either of the two leaders. I needed to subtract another 600 to get Fariha’s proper maximum.
Shorthand doesn’t always work.
What actually happened
| Todd | Fariha | Laura | |||
| 11,000 | 10,400 | 11,000 | |||
| 11,000 | 9,798 | 11,000 | |||
| 22,000 | 602 | 0 | |||
| min | max | ||||
| 11,000 ! | 1,201 | 9,199 | 11,000 ! | ||
| 0 ! | 0 ! | ||||
Fariha might have made the same mistake I did, but it wouldn’t have mattered anyway – both of her opponents did what they needed to do.
Todd, with the sole get, has now won 3 games and $74,402.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| THE OSCARS |
| SINCE 1998 THIS ACTRESS HAS RECEIVED 7 OSCAR NOMINATIONS, THE MOST EARNED AFTER AGE 60 BY ANY PERFORMER |
| Correct response: | Show |
|---|---|
| previous week | same week | following week | ||||||||||||
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Could you please explain your reasoning about Fariha’s proper wager?
My analysis in her shoes is that each of the leaders, unless they do something stupid, is going to wind up with either 0, 11,000, or 22,000. Therefore, Fariha should bet at least 601 (to be over 11,000 if she’s right) and at most everything minus 1 (to be over zero if she’s wrong).
Your range for her has her attempting to reach 11,601, or to keep at least 1,201, neither of which seem meaningful numbers given what the two leaders are likely to do.
Either 0 or 11,000 is likely for the co-leaders, yes… but not every player is rational in this (or any) situation. We saw this happen earlier this month, in fact.
It’s feasible a co-leader might wager 9,801 to lock Fariha out, or wager 599 to force her to get it right. From a game theory perspective, it is best for her to stay in that smaller range I highlighted.