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March 29, 2016

Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Tuesday, March 29, 2016

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If Erin Bowers fails to defend tonight, we will certainly set a new record for longest streak without a 5-time champion: 102 games.

Before Michelle nabbed that last $2,000 clue, Erin had a much better shot; now, I’m afraid she might be out of luck.

Erin

Bowers (1x)

Todd

Giese

Michelle

Bulger

7,000 16,400 15,800

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

STATE CAPITAL GEOGRAPHY

This is the Strong Form of Shore’s Conjecture.

My hunch here was we’d see a clue about the state capital with the highest elevation. (Here are some other notable state capital facts.)

First-order calculations

Todd almost has to go big, while both he and Michelle can keep Erin locked out.

Erin
Todd
Michelle
7,000 16,400 15,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
5,800 15,200 1,800
14,600
2,400

Second-order calculations

Here are the Shoretegic mind games.

Erin
Todd
Michelle
7,000 16,400 15,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
5,800 15,200 1,800
1,200 2,400 600
14,600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Todd and Michelle: 600
Todd and Erin: 9,400
Michelle and Erin: 8,800

Erin
Todd
Michelle
7,000 16,400 15,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
5,800 15,200 1,200 1,800
1,200 2,400 600 600
600 8,800

What actually happened

Erin Todd Michelle
7,000 16,400 15,800
1,000 15,201 1,799
8,000 31,601 17,599
min max min max min max
5,799 15,201 1,201 1,799
1,201 2,399 600 601
599 8,799

Todd could have won it with the Shoretegic wager… but he (rightly) took things into his own hands, and it paid off for him.

Our players are 6/6 on Final Jeopardy! this week. C’mon, writers – make ’em trickier!

Season 6 of Archer is now on Netflix, so that’s where I’ll be the rest of the night, I guess. (I have a thing for it, as you might know.)

The Final Jeopardy! clue

STATE CAPITAL GEOGRAPHY
OF THE 5 U.S. STATE CAPITALS THAT BEGIN WITH THE LETTER “A”, THE ONE THAT IS FARTHEST NORTH

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – March 29, 2016
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