Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Thursday, March 3, 2016
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We’ve got a doozy on tonight’s Jeopardy! episode. (Hey, where’d Keith go?)
He’s probably praying that Ted won’t wager everything.
Rachel Zoch (2x) |
Ted Dorsey |
Soumia Meiyappan |
12,600 | 10,000 | 12,600 |
Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
AMERICAN HISTORY |
For the leaders, this one’s easier than the debacle of January 18; because Ted has more than half of their totals, he effectively eliminates the “wager zero” option.
First-order calculations
Ted just needs to keep some money around.
Rachel |
Ted |
Soumia | |||
12,600 | 10,000 | 12,600 | |||
FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
12,600 | 10,000 | 12,600 | |||
Second-order calculations
I suppose there’s a chance someone will wager 7,401, so Ted could keep his wager below 4,800. Not an overwhelmingly convincing option.
Rachel |
Ted |
Soumia | |||
12,600 | 10,000 | 12,600 | |||
FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
12,600 | 10,000 | 12,600 | |||
4,800 | |||||
Zero wagers
I prefer the larger range for Ted, because 2,599 feels much more likely than 7,401.
Rachel |
Ted |
Soumia | |||
12,600 | 10,000 | 12,600 | |||
FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
12,600 | 5,200 | 10,000 | 12,600 | ||
2,600 | 4,800 | ||||
What actually happened
Rachel | Ted | Soumia | |||
12,600 | 10,000 | 12,600 | |||
12,599 | 2,615 | 12,600 | |||
25,199 | 7,385 | 0 | |||
min | max | ||||
12,600 ! | 5,201 | 9,999 | 12,600 ! | ||
2,601 | 4,799 |
Now, remember: I’m all about process, not outcome. So while Rachel has the game and the money ($42,699 after three wins), all you have to do is imagine a world in which Soumia responded correctly.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
AMERICAN HISTORY |
IN THE 1690s ITS LEGISLATURE REFERRED TO THIS PLACE AS “HIS MAJESTY’S ANCIENT COLONY AND DOMINION” |
Correct response: | Show> |
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When tied for the lead betting all but $1 seems like the highest order of poor wagers.