Skip to content
March 3, 2016

Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Thursday, March 3, 2016

previous week same week following week
22 23 24 25 26 29 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10 11

We’ve got a doozy on tonight’s Jeopardy! episode. (Hey, where’d Keith go?)

He’s probably praying that Ted won’t wager everything.

Rachel

Zoch (2x)

Ted

Dorsey

Soumia

Meiyappan

12,600 10,000 12,600

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

AMERICAN HISTORY

For the leaders, this one’s easier than the debacle of January 18; because Ted has more than half of their totals, he effectively eliminates the “wager zero” option.

First-order calculations

Ted just needs to keep some money around.

Rachel
Ted
Soumia
12,600 10,000 12,600
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
12,600 10,000 12,600

Second-order calculations

I suppose there’s a chance someone will wager 7,401, so Ted could keep his wager below 4,800. Not an overwhelmingly convincing option.

Rachel
Ted
Soumia
12,600 10,000 12,600
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
12,600 10,000 12,600
4,800

Zero wagers

I prefer the larger range for Ted, because 2,599 feels much more likely than 7,401.

Rachel
Ted
Soumia
12,600 10,000 12,600
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
12,600 5,200 10,000 12,600
2,600 4,800

What actually happened

Rachel Ted Soumia
12,600 10,000 12,600
12,599 2,615 12,600
25,199 7,385 0
min max
12,600 ! 5,201 9,999 12,600 !
2,601 4,799

Now, remember: I’m all about process, not outcome. So while Rachel has the game and the money ($42,699 after three wins), all you have to do is imagine a world in which Soumia responded correctly.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

AMERICAN HISTORY
IN THE 1690s ITS LEGISLATURE REFERRED TO THIS PLACE AS “HIS MAJESTY’S ANCIENT COLONY AND DOMINION”

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – March 3, 2016
previous week same week following week
22 23 24 25 26 29 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10 11

One Comment
  1. When tied for the lead betting all but $1 seems like the highest order of poor wagers.

What do you think?