Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Thursday, March 3, 2016

We’ve got a doozy on tonight’s Jeopardy! episode. (Hey, where’d Keith go?)

He’s probably praying that Ted won’t wager everything.

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

For the leaders, this one’s easier than the debacle of January 18; because Ted has more than half of their totals, he effectively eliminates the “wager zero” option.

First-order calculations

Ted just needs to keep some money around.

Second-order calculations

I suppose there’s a chance someone will wager 7,401, so Ted could keep his wager below 4,800. Not an overwhelmingly convincing option.

Zero wagers

I prefer the larger range for Ted, because 2,599 feels much more likely than 7,401.

What actually happened

Now, remember: I’m all about process, not outcome. So while Rachel has the game and the money ($42,699 after three wins), all you have to do is imagine a world in which Soumia responded correctly.

The Final Jeopardy! clue