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March 2, 2016

Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Wednesday, March 2, 2016

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I was going to wait until tomorrow to post tonight’s video, but… well, you know.

Let’s go right to the Final Jeopardy! category:

STATE CAPITALS

Hey! I’ve written about how this tends to turn to dumb wordplay! Maybe one of my hints will come in handy.

Oh, yeah – we have some wagers to calculate:

Rachel

Zoch (1x)

Peter

Diedrich

John

Bozek

16,800 20,600 8,200

Let’s go to the analysis.

First-order calculations

Rachel can keep John locked out…

Rachel
Peter
John
16,800 20,600 8,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
400 13,000 600
9,200
4,200

Second-order calculations

…but it puts her at risk to a small wager by Peter. So my recommendation is that John go for everything in case Rachel makes a middling wager, which would still force him to get it right.

Rachel
Peter
John
16,800 20,600 8,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
400 13,000 7,000*
8,000 5,400 600
1,600 4,200

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Peter and Rachel: 3,800
Peter and John: 12,400
Rachel and John: 8,600

Rachel
Peter
John
16,800 20,600 8,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
7,600 8,000 13,000 7,000*
400 5,400 7,600 600
3,800 4,200

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Rachel Peter John
16,800 20,600 8,200
4,000 13,001 500
12,800 7,599 8,700
min max min max min max
7,601 7,999 13,001 8,200
399 4,199 599
3,801 5,401 7,599

That’s a bummer for John – he made a good wager, and got the only correct response, but Rachel outfoxed him.

Rachel has yet to win big, but coming back tomorrow is all that matters – that’s 2 games and $17,500.

(Somehow this fact didn’t make it into my STATE CAPITALS Fact Primer. Maybe that’s because I had no idea how obscure it was? Now I feel guilty that someone might have missed this because I didn’t put it in there!)

The Final Jeopardy! clue

STATE CAPITALS
SETTLED IN THE 1780s, IT’S THE ONLY STATE CAPITAL WITHOUT A MCDONALD’S

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – March 2, 2016
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