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February 12, 2016

Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Friday, February 12, 2016 (College Finals #2)

2016 College Championship
schools represented wild-card wagering
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

Hey, it’s one of the few times I have a good reason to bring this thing out.

If you are unfamiliar with how two-day total-point affairs work, have a look at this post.

To find out who is really in the lead in this format, we need to calculate the maximum possible total for each player.

Sarah

Dubnik

Niki

Peters

Sam

Deutsch

Day 2
pre-FJ
4,800 16,400 8,600
Day 1
Total
22,001 18,600 22,000
Maximum Total 31,601 51,400 39,200
Pitt UC Berkeley USC

Niki’s got her hands firmly on the wheel, but it’s technically anyone’s game.

We’re dealing with this Final Jeopardy! category:

THE U.S. SENATE

The full analysis is in the video – and it’s a doozy.

What actually happened

Sarah Niki Sam
4,800 16,400 8,600
4,800 3,350 8,600
0 13,050 17,200
22,001 18,600 22,000
22,001 31,650 39,200
min max min max min max
4,000 4,201 7,800
3,398 4,401

I like Niki’s wager, even though it’s something I probably wouldn’t consider myself. It keeps Sarah at bay (guaranteeing Niki at least $50,000); it still forces Sam to get it right; and it wins on a double-get if Sam wagers something like 4,401.

Congrats to Sam on winning the tournament, the $100,000 top prize, and a berth in the next ToC. And congrats to all of the players for one of the best-played College Championships I’ve had the pleasure to watch!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

THE U.S. SENATE
DURING HIS SENATE SERVICE, WHICH LASTED FROM 1973 TO JANUARY 2009, THIS MAN CAST 12,810 VOTES

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – February 12, 2016
2016 College Championship
schools represented wild-card wagering
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

3 Comments
  1. sam permalink

    hey, sam here!

    I actually tried to change my wager after impulsively locking in my all or nothing bet – I figured there was a significant probability that Sarah would be also betting everything, and if we both got it wrong that would cost me the 25k difference between 2nd and 3rd. I was gonna change it to 8958, which looking back would have been a more optimal wager – luckily I got it right and it didn’t matter but I had kind of a minor internal freakout when I realized haha

    • I think you mean 8598?

      And Sam, if you didn’t catch Monday’s recap video, I recommend it – it’s clear that Keith enjoyed the College Championship so much that he’s having trouble letting go.

    • Hey, Sam! Thanks for stopping by, and congrats on winning the tournament. Has the trophy fallen apart yet? Be careful, the crystal ball on top of mine falls off for no good reason!

What do you think?