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February 8, 2016

Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Monday, February 8, 2016 (College SF #1)

2016 College Championship
schools represented wild-card wagering
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

We’re off and running in week two of this year’s College Championship – and we’ve got a high-powered game to kick us off.

I pegged Niki and Gus as the top two seeds heading into the second round, and the producers saw fit to pit them against each other. Emily Sun is trying to play spoiler.

Niki

Peters

Gus

Woythaler

Emily

Sun

14,800 11,400 12,400
UC Berkeley Stanford Columbia

It would have been fun to see what Niki would have done with more money on either of those Daily Doubles; Emily left $1,200 on the table, and as a result, she’s in Stratton’s Dilemma.

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

ROYALTY

We’ve got a fun one to start things off. I should note that this year the wild cards are split 3-1-0, meaning at least one will make the two-day total-point affair. (Click to see my past analysis on how wild cards underperform in later rounds.)

First-order calculations

Niki has to wager 10,001 to lock out Emily; Gus can sit tight for the most part because Emily basically has to go all in.

Niki
Gus
Emily
14,800 11,400 12,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
10,000 6,600 10,400*
7,600
8,000 4,600

Second-order calculations

We do have some mind games, mostly between Gus and Emily. (Niki has no compelling reason to go smaller than 10,001, particularly with her knowledge base.)

Niki
Gus
Emily
14,800 11,400 12,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
10,000 4,600 10,400*
5,200 1,800 5,600 7,600
6,600 2,800

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Niki and Emily: 2,400
Niki and Gus: 3,400
Emily and Gus: 1,000

Niki
Gus
Emily
14,800 11,400 12,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
10,000 3,400 4,600 10,400*
5,200 1,000 1,800 5,600 7,600
2,400 6,600 1,000

Even more fun here with these lime-green wagers…

What actually happened

Niki Gus Emily
14,800 11,400 12,400
10,100 1,001 12,400
24,900 10,399 24,800
min max min max min max
10,001 3,401 4,599 12,400
5,201 1,001 1,799 5,601 7,599
2,399 6,599 999

I’m somewhat surprised Niki didn’t get dinged on this final for not including a regnal number.

Often I’d give her a yellow for the extra $99, but it was never going to matter. Between the flu and the $100 lockout wager, she seems to be following in the footsteps of Julia Collins.

Congrats to all three players for a great game!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

ROYALTY
IN 1604, FOR A SPECIAL PROJECT, HE APPROVED A LIST OF SCHOLARS TO WORK AT WESTMINSTER, CAMBRIDGE & OXFORD

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – February 8, 2016
2016 College Championship
schools represented wild-card wagering
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

One Comment
  1. Sue permalink

    I think Emily won since Niki couldn’t come up with King James’ number. There was a James II too, but he was off fighting the Battle of the Boyne later. Jeopardy is getting a lot less picky than it used to be.

What do you think?