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February 4, 2016

Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Thursday, February 4, 2016 (College QF #4)

2016 College Championship
schools represented wild-card wagering
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

The fourth quarterfinal is always my favorite in Jeopardy! tournaments – and especially so tonight, in part because I really, REALLY liked one of the wagers. Which?

I like the fourth quarterfinal because it confirms the identity of three new semifinalists: tonight’s winner and the top two wild cards. Who will those be?

Sarah

Dubnik

Hannah

Norem

Gus

Woythaler

16,000 7,400 20,600
Pitt Augustana (SD) Stanford

We’ll be playing with this category:

19th CENTURY BOOKS

Another straightforward one for my calculator:

Confidence
Player Score 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Sarah 16,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hannah 7,400 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200
Gus 20,600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

In Sarah’s position, I’d wager up to 1,199 depending on my confidence with the category, just to keep Hannah at bay.

What actually happened

Sarah Hannah Gus
16,000 7,400 20,600
1,199 7,000 1,622
14,801 14,400 22,222

Hannah ekes out the second wild-card slot; one dollar less and she would be sitting in fourth.

Here’s why I loved Gus’s wager: I aimed for the same total myself in my College quarterfinal!

keith 2003 college qf

Kevin Brown of LSU must be kicking himself for not wagering to lock out Kate in their match; instead of advancing to the semifinals, he’s now eliminated.

Unless there’s no winner tomorrow, my off-the-cuff prediction of 14,500 as the cut-off is going to be off by a hundred.

Quarterfinal winners:

  1. Emily Sun (Columbia)
  2. Emily Bingham (Wright State)
  3. Sam Deutsch (USC)
  4. Gus Woythaler (Stanford)

Wild-card race:

  1. Sarah Dubnik (Pitt) – 14,801 (clinched)
  2. Hannah Norem (Augustana) – 14,400 (clinched)
  3. Kate Laubscher (Northeastern) – 14,400 (93%)
  4. Michael Sieja (Mississippi State) – 14,400 (55%)
  5. Kevin Brown (LSU) – 14,000
  6. Amanda Rosner (Northwestern) – 13,200
  7. Adam Antoszewski (UVA) – 0
  8. Carissa Pekny (West Point) – 0

First tiebreaker: score before Final Jeopardy!

  • Hannah: 7,400
  • Kate: 7,200
  • Michael: 7,200

Second tiebreaker: score before Double Jeopardy!

  • Kate: 3,200
  • Michael: 2,600

Percentage represents probability of advancing based on past College Championship data.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

19th CENTURY BOOKS
“INSTINCT”, “HYBRIDISM” & “GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION” ARE CHAPTERS IN THIS BOOK

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – February 4, 2016
2016 College Championship
schools represented wild-card wagering
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

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