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February 2, 2016

Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Tuesday, February 2, 2016 (College QF #2)

2016 College Championship
schools represented wild-card wagering
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

Night two of the College Championship – how will tonight’s slate of players do?

A higher-scoring game than Monday’s opener. Emily looks good to move on, Kevin is in decent shape, and Kate will probably need to make something happen.

Emily

Bingham

Kevin

Brown

Kate

Laubscher

17,600 12,600 7,200
Wright State LSU Northeastern

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

ETYMOLOGY

Here’s what my calculator says each player should do for a wild card:

Confidence
Player Score 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Emily 17,600 0 0 0 0 0 1,100 1,100
Kevin 12,600 0 0 0 1,801* 3,300 3,300 4,500
Kate 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200

*If Kevin were guaranteed the first wild card, his ideal wager would be 1,000

What actually happened

Emily Kevin Kate
17,600 12,600 7,200
0 1,400 7,200
17,600 14,000 14,400

Not sure why Kevin didn’t add the extra 401 – we’ll see if that comes back to haunt him at the end of the week.

About a year ago I analyzed how varying difficulties of Final Jeopardy! clues is an unfortunate feature of tournaments; this one was way too easy, particularly compared with last night’s Final.

Quarterfinal winners:

  1. Emily Sun (Columbia)
  2. Emily Bingham (Wright State University)

Wild-card race:

  1. Kate Laubscher (Northeastern University) – 14,400 (95%)
  2. Kevin Brown (Louisiana State University) – 14,000 (75%)
  3. Adam Antoszewski (UVA) – 0 (<1%)
  4. Carissa Pekny (West Point) – 0 (<1%)

Percentage represents probability of advancing based on past College Championship data.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

ETYMOLOGY
THIS WORD REFERRING TO SOMEONE WHO IS NOT AN EXPERT IS FROM THE LATIN FOR “LOVE”

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – February 2, 2016
2016 College Championship
schools represented wild-card wagering
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

One Comment

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