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February 1, 2016

Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Monday, February 1, 2016 (College QF #1)

2016 College Championship
schools represented wild-card wagering
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

As you might have figured, I have a soft spot for the Jeopardy! College Championship. Who will take home the trophy this year?

Tough game tonight – I thought these boards were more difficult in many spots than a regular game. Our scores are lower as a result.

Adam

Antoszewski

Carissa

Pekny

Emily

Sun

6,400 5,000 10,900
UVA West Point Columbia

Earlier today, I published ‘ideal’ wagers from various positions. You don’t need to read it to have the sense that Adam and Carissa need to go big.

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

U.S. NATURAL WONDERS

What actually happened

Adam Carissa Emily
6,400 5,000 10,900
6,400 5,000 1,901
0 0 8,999
6,400 5,000 1,901
4,501 899

They did what they had to do, but this was a tricky Final – with huge negbait. Congrats to Emily on the win, and congrats to Adam and Carissa for a game well played.

Quarterfinal winners:

  1. Emily Sun (Columbia)

Wild-card race:

  1. Adam Antoszewski (UVA) – 0 (<1%)
  2. Carissa Pekny (West Point) – 0 (<1%)

Percentage represents probability of advancing based on past College Championship data.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

U.S. NATURAL WONDERS
TEDDY ROOSEVELT CALLED IT “THE ONE GREAT SIGHT WHICH EVERY AMERICAN SHOULD SEE”

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – February 1, 2016
2016 College Championship
schools represented wild-card wagering
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

3 Comments
  1. Jonathan Constine permalink

    Please define negbait

  2. Kelly permalink

    I would’ve put a minimum of 5,400 for Adam to cover that possible 899 amount from Emily – and from her position I would most likely make the cover bet with scores of that magnitude since the chances are too great of not moving on if both her and Adam getting FJ! right (now if we had scores with the same ratio but greater amounts where a wildcard berth would be more likely with a “small” wager, or if Adam was within 2/3 of Emily and thus she could miss on a Final that everyone got wrong, then I’d be more likely to consider the bet that would keep Clarissa locked out of an automatic win).

  3. Keith, the QF1 link in the 2016 College Championship mini-calendar on the right is broken (the link specifies 2015 not 2016). I thought this was a terrible FJ despite the fact that I guessed it…

What do you think?