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January 26, 2016

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

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I got really angry during Tuesday’s video. How much of that frustration stemmed from the wagers?

We’ll have to see, because this could be a tricky situation – particularly with Fred’s odd wagering pattern.

Fred

Vaughn (2x)

Sonam

Shah

Gerry

Matatics

20,800 16,200 8,600

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

20th CENTURY AMERICA

By the way, if you didn’t think Fred was TOC material, tonight’s game should put your doubts to rest. Over $20k without the benefit of a Daily Double is pretty, pretty, pretty good.

First-order calculations

Gerry needs to get it right to have a chance, which makes the rest of our analysis easier.

Fred
Sonam
Gerry
20,800 16,200 8,600
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
11,600 1,000 7,000 600*
3,600

Second-order calculations

Fred can wager 2,400 to cover Sonam’s expected large wager, while Sonam should up her minimum wager.

Fred
Sonam
Gerry
20,800 16,200 8,600
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
11,600 2,200 7,000 600*
2,400 3,600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Fred and Sonam: 4,600
Fred and Gerry: 12,200
Sonam and Gerry: 7,600

Fred
Sonam
Gerry
20,800 16,200 8,600
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
11,600 12,200 4,600 7,000 600*
2,400 3,600 9,200*

I don’t like the all-in from Sonam, but the math could suggest it.

What actually happened

Fred Sonam Gerry
20,800 16,200 8,600
7,500 12,201 8,598
13,300 3,999 2
min max min max
11,601 12,199 4,601 6,999 8,600
2,401 3,599
16,200

Turns out it would have worked on an easier clue. Why Sonam picked that number I can’t tell – it would have worked out (by $101) but I see no reason to anticipate Fred wagering 7,600.

Fred would have been better off forcing Sonam to get it right – or at least not giving her the chance at a win with that basic 1,001 wager to cover Gerry. No matter: he has now won 3 games and $49,600, and has a chance to break our drought tomorrow.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

20th CENTURY AMERICA
THE 1970 FOLLOW-UP LINE “WE’VE HAD A MAIN B BUS UNDERVOLT” WAS ADDRESSED TO A LISTENER IN THIS CITY

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – January 26, 2016
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2 Comments
  1. TMI was in 1979. I’m not sure why you’re thinking it was 1970.

    • I put that disclaimer on the video, I thought. I couldn’t remember if it was at the beginning of the decade or the end – knew it was one or the other.

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