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January 25, 2016

Monday, January 25, 2016

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I hope that you all had a good weekend – and if you’re on the east coast, that you’re getting back to normal.

Fred is back and looks more confident tonight. He’s almost got it locked up heading into Final.

Fred

Vaughn (1x)

Steven

Wolfe

Adrien

Schless-Meier

16,800 7,200 9,200

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

FICTIONAL COUPLES

Easy one tonight.

First-order calculations

Fred should wager 1,601 to cover Adrien – but if he’s feeling risky, he can go for up to 2,399 to keep Steven locked out.

Fred
Steven
Adrien
16,800 7,200 9,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
1,600 2,400 6,000*

However…

What actually happened

Fred Steven Adrien
16,800 7,200 9,200
3,500 7,200 9,200
20,300 0 0
min max
1,601 2,399 9,200

Fred wagered too much, allowing Steven a shot back into it. (I wouldn’t have wagered everything as Steven, but maybe he knew something I didn’t?)

I recently ran the stats and found it’s very unusual for a leader to ‘resuscitate’ the chances of a player who’s mathematically eliminated. I wouldn’t see this as more than an outlier, as a opportunity for a small amount of additional cash doesn’t outweigh the increased probability of losing.

In any case, Fred has the money – $36,300 total – and two wins in the bag.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

FICTIONAL COUPLES
AMONG THE GUESTS ATTENDING THEIR ANNIVERSARY PARTY IN 2005 CELEBRATING 75 YEARS WERE DICK TRACY, DILBERT & DENNIS THE MENACE

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – January 25, 2016
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