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January 7, 2016

Thursday, January 7, 2016

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Greetings again from Vermont! Will Steve Belding win a third game? Or will the Sony commissary reduce him to a food coma?

The Final Wager – January 7, 2016

I’ll do something outdoorsy with the video tomorrow. There’s not much to see right now.

This was a roller coaster of a game, with some unexpected gets (Steve, T.I.) and some rough misses (Steve, both DJ! Daily Doubles). Lizzie was a hair’s breadth away from sealing this one but missed a key clue.

Kudos to her for going for the $2,000 clue, the only one that could provide her with the lock assuming it was the last to be seen (and it was). Steve got it instead, and everyone’s alive here:

Steve

Belding

Lizzie

Turner

Brian

Rafferty

8,600 11,400 3,400

We’ll deal with this category:

PLACES ON THE MAP

When I saw the scores I told my mom: “This is going to be fun.”

First-order calculations

Brian has to get it right to have a shot, but Steve is stuck in a not-quite-Shoretegic situation: he can keep Brian locked out, but he can’t cover a zero by Lizzie.

Steve
Lizzie
Brian
8,600 11,400 3,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
1,800 5,800 2,200*
3,000
4,600

Second-order calculations

There are some mind games available. If Steve goes for 1,800, Lizzie can win with as much as 1,000. If Steve goes for 3,000, Lizzie can cover him with 200.

I can see Steve going all-in here if he’s scared Lizzie will play conservatively.

Steve
Lizzie
Brian
8,600 11,400 3,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
1,800 5,800 2,200*
2,600 3,000 200 1,000
3,800* 4,600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Lizzie and Steve: 2,800
Lizzie and Brian: 8,000
Steve and Brian: 5,200

Steve
Lizzie
Brian
8,600 11,400 3,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
1,800 5,800 8,000 2,200*
2,800 3,000 200 1,000
5,600* 2,800

What actually happened

Steve Lizzie Brian
8,600 11,400 3,400
1,799 6,000 2,401
10,399 5,400 999
min max min max
2,801 2,999 5,801 7,999 3,400
1,799 201 999
8,600

Steve decided to keep Lizzie locked out, and Lizzie played to win. It didn’t work out for her this time, and so Steve joins the ToC leaderboard with 3 wins and $58,801.

Brian clearly put some thought into his wager: if Steve goes for 2,801 (to cover Lizzie’s zero wager) and misses, and Brian gets it right, then Brian will beat Steve by $2.

Still, no reason for Brian not to go all-in here. I almost gave him a pink; try to figure out why.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

PLACES ON THE MAP
THANKS TO JOHN CABOT, 16th CENTURY FRENCH DOCUMENTS INCLUDED THIS ISLAND DESIGNATED AS “TERRE NEUVE”
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