Skip to content
January 1, 2016

Friday, January 1, 2016

previous week same week following week
21 22 23 24 25 28 29 30 31 1 4 5 6 7 8

My 2016 is off to a great start – let’s see if we can get some good wagers out of tonight’s players!

Ashley Wilson looks poised to become our first repeat champion since Claudia Corriere had to take a break after winning her second game two weeks ago.

Ashley

Wilson

Deborah

Henry

Carl

Holmgren

19,200 15,400 9,800

I watched Amadeus this afternoon, so I’m prepared to use Mozart’s cackle if necessary on tonight’s video.

All three players are alive with this category:

THE 18th CENTURY

We’ve got a tricky one, particularly for our third-place player.

First-order calculations

Ashley can cover Deborah with a big wager, while Deborah has a safe range to both cover Carl and stay above Ashley.

Ashley
Deborah
Carl
19,200 15,400 9,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
11,600 4,200 7,800 1,400 2,200
9,000*
400

Second-order calculations

All of the possible mind games should lead Carl to go for broke here, even if the ‘rational’ play is to stay small.

Ashley
Deborah
Carl
19,200 15,400 9,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
11,600 4,200 7,800 9,000*
4,000 7,200 3,400 1,400 2,200
400 200

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Ashley and Deborah: 3,800
Ashley and Carl: 9,400
Deborah and Carl: 5,600

Ashley
Deborah
Carl
19,200 15,400 9,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
11,600 7,600 7,800 9,400*
4,000 7,200 4,200 1,400 2,200
400 3,800 3,400

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Ashley Deborah Carl
19,200 15,400 9,800
11,601 4,201 9,401
30,801 19,601 399
min max min max min max
11,601 7,601 7,799 9,800
4,001 7,199 4,201 1,401 2,199
401 3,799 199

Turns out everyone wagered rationally, so Carl’s big play was unnecessary. The thing is: I focus on process, not outcomes! It was a good wager.

Ashley has now won 2 games and $52,402.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

THE 18th CENTURY
IN 1765 BRITAIN’S PM SAID, AFTER ALL WE’VE DONE FOR THE COLONIES, IF THEY WHINE ABOUT THIS LAW, THEY’LL WHINE ABOUT ANYTHING

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – January 1, 2016

previous week same week following week
21 22 23 24 25 28 29 30 31 1 4 5 6 7 8
Leave a Comment

What do you think?