Friday, January 1, 2016
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My 2016 is off to a great start – let’s see if we can get some good wagers out of tonight’s players!
Ashley Wilson looks poised to become our first repeat champion since Claudia Corriere had to take a break after winning her second game two weeks ago.
Ashley Wilson |
Deborah Henry |
Carl Holmgren |
19,200 | 15,400 | 9,800 |
I watched Amadeus this afternoon, so I’m prepared to use Mozart’s cackle if necessary on tonight’s video.
All three players are alive with this category:
THE 18th CENTURY |
We’ve got a tricky one, particularly for our third-place player.
First-order calculations
Ashley can cover Deborah with a big wager, while Deborah has a safe range to both cover Carl and stay above Ashley.
Ashley |
Deborah |
Carl | |||
19,200 | 15,400 | 9,800 | |||
FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
11,600 | 4,200 | 7,800 | 1,400 | 2,200 | |
9,000* | |||||
400 | |||||
Second-order calculations
All of the possible mind games should lead Carl to go for broke here, even if the ‘rational’ play is to stay small.
Ashley |
Deborah |
Carl | |||
19,200 | 15,400 | 9,800 | |||
FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
11,600 | 4,200 | 7,800 | 9,000* | ||
4,000 | 7,200 | 3,400 | 1,400 | 2,200 | |
400 | 200 | ||||
Zero wagers
Score differences:
Ashley and Deborah: 3,800
Ashley and Carl: 9,400
Deborah and Carl: 5,600
Ashley |
Deborah |
Carl | |||
19,200 | 15,400 | 9,800 | |||
FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
11,600 | 7,600 | 7,800 | 9,400* | ||
4,000 | 7,200 | 4,200 | 1,400 | 2,200 | |
400 | 3,800 | 3,400 | |||
Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.
What actually happened
Ashley | Deborah | Carl | |||
19,200 | 15,400 | 9,800 | |||
11,601 | 4,201 | 9,401 | |||
30,801 | 19,601 | 399 | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
11,601 | 7,601 | 7,799 | 9,800 | ||
4,001 | 7,199 | 4,201 | 1,401 | 2,199 | |
401 | 3,799 | 199 |
Turns out everyone wagered rationally, so Carl’s big play was unnecessary. The thing is: I focus on process, not outcomes! It was a good wager.
Ashley has now won 2 games and $52,402.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
THE 18th CENTURY |
IN 1765 BRITAIN’S PM SAID, AFTER ALL WE’VE DONE FOR THE COLONIES, IF THEY WHINE ABOUT THIS LAW, THEY’LL WHINE ABOUT ANYTHING |
Correct response: | Show> |
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