Friday, January 1, 2016

My 2016 is off to a great start – let’s see if we can get some good wagers out of tonight’s players!

Ashley Wilson looks poised to become our first repeat champion since Claudia Corriere had to take a break after winning her second game two weeks ago.

I watched Amadeus this afternoon, so I’m prepared to use Mozart’s cackle if necessary on tonight’s video.

All three players are alive with this category:

We’ve got a tricky one, particularly for our third-place player.

First-order calculations

Ashley can cover Deborah with a big wager, while Deborah has a safe range to both cover Carl and stay above Ashley.

Second-order calculations

All of the possible mind games should lead Carl to go for broke here, even if the ‘rational’ play is to stay small.

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Ashley and Deborah: 3,800
Ashley and Carl: 9,400
Deborah and Carl: 5,600

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Turns out everyone wagered rationally, so Carl’s big play was unnecessary. The thing is: I focus on process, not outcomes! It was a good wager.

Ashley has now won 2 games and $52,402.

The Final Jeopardy! clue