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December 18, 2015

Friday, December 18, 2015

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If you want to learn how to wager, Friday’s game is a great place to start.

I was disappointed that Julie didn’t go bigger on that final Daily Double – just 2,500 out of 12,200 on an $800 clue. It ultimately cost her the lead heading into Final.

Claudia

Corriere

Julie

Graves

Kiyana

Holderbaum

16,200 14,300 6,400

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

AMERICANA

There’s lots more discussion of the wagers and mind games on the video.

First-order calculations

Claudia will have to go big to cover Julie. Julie can wager small to stay above Kiyana, but it won’t cover a zero out of Claudia, so we’re gonna have some fun.

Claudia
Julie
Kiyana
16,200 14,300 6,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
12,400 10,500 2,600
1,500
3,400

Second-order calculations

Adding in the various mind games, Kiyana should go for broke because the odds that Claudia and Julie wager to stay above her are really good.

Claudia
Julie
Kiyana
16,200 14,300 6,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
12,400 2,300 5,300 4,600*
8,600 7,200 1,500 1,200 2,600
400 6,700

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Claudia and Julie: 1,900
Claudia and Kiyana: 9,800
Julie and Kiyana: 7,900

Claudia
Julie
Kiyana
16,200 14,300 6,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
12,400 3,800 5,300 4,600*
8,600 9,800 1,500 1,200 2,600
400

Then we have to align our ranges, and decide which one to go with. When we’re done, we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Claudia Julie Kiyana
16,200 14,300 6,400
5,000 1,901 4,000
21,200 16,201 10,400
min max min max min max
12,401 3,801 5,299 6,400
399 1,499 1,201 2,599
8,601 9,799

Bad wagers across the board! Not a great week for those, I guess. Notice that if Claudia and Julie both missed, Kiyana would have come up short, where an all-in would have done the trick.

In any event, Claudia has now won 2 games and $29,000.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

AMERICANA
WHILE WORKING FOR A PLASTICS COMPANY, DON FEATHERSTONE CREATED THIS ICONIC LAWN DECOR, BASING IT ON PHOTOS IN NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – December 18, 2015
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2 Comments
  1. Kelly permalink

    Didn’t you mean to say that *Claudia* might not make it if there won’t be a returning champion? When you said *Alex* I thought that would mean either an unexpected break in taping or that we’d have a guest host.

  2. Richard Corliss permalink

    Keith you forgot to add Michael Bilow 1 on the week of March 23 and Michael Bilow 2-4 on the week of March 30.

What do you think?