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November 16, 2015

Monday, November 16, 2015 – ToC2015 SF #1

2015 Tournament of Champions
Pre-tourney stats: Pre-Final position Forrest Bouncing
Coryat scores
QF preview SF preview
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

We’re on to the semifinals! Who will take our first semifinal slot: Kerry Greene, John Schultz, or Dan Feitel? Click here for my prediction.

In a big switch from last week, all three players struggled. Kudos in particular to John for storming back from the red in Double Jeopardy!.

And I gotta say – I cleaned up in that pope category. (I wonder why.)

Kerry

Greene

John

Schultz

Dan

Feitel

7,400 5,400 9,000

It’s a spicy meat-a-ball! And a fun little category to boot:

CITIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

Any Italian jokes in that last section are pure coincidence. Let’s look at the wagers:

First-order calculations

Dan can cover Kerry with 5,800, and Kerry can cover John with 3,400. Both trailers can play defensively, too.

Kerry
John
Dan
7,400 5,400 9,000
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
3,400 4,200 1,400 5,800
2,200
1,800

Second-order calculations

Now the mind-games begin: Kerry can stay above John’s smaller wager with no more than 600, and Dan can cover Kerry’s smaller range with 2,600. (The 1,000 for John is in case Dan misses with his smaller range.)

Kerry
John
Dan
7,400 5,400 9,000
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
3,400 4,200 1,000 1,400 5,800
600 2,200 2,600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Dan and Kerry: 1,600
Dan and John: 3,600
Kerry and John: 2,000

Kerry
John
Dan
7,400 5,400 9,000
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
3,400 4,200 1,000 1,400 5,800
600 2,000 2,200 2,600

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Kerry John Dan
7,400 5,400 9,000
5,400 600 5,801
12,800 6,000 3,199
min max min max
3,401 4,199 1,001 1,399 5,801
599 2,001 2,199 2,601

Nice pull there by Kerry and John. Small consolation for Dan: he had the only “green” wager.

But the only Greene that matters is Kerry*, who moves on to the finals and is guaranteed at least $50,000. Congrats!

*cue the Matt Jackson ‘groan’

The Final Jeopardy! clue

CITIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
A HANSEATIC CITY, THIS PORT OF 1.8 MILLION IS THE LARGEST EUROPEAN UNION CITY THAT’S NOT A CAPITAL

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – November 16, 2015
2015 Tournament of Champions
Pre-tourney stats: Pre-Final position Forrest Bouncing
Coryat scores
QF preview SF preview
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

3 Comments
  1. Greg permalink

    Alex mentioned that one of these three WILL be a finalist. What would happen in the highly unlikely event of a triple zero finish, since zero can never be a winning score? A toss-up?

    • That happened in a recent Teen Tournament – all three players finished with zero so the producers opened up a ‘wild card’ slot for the other semifinalists. (I believe it also happened in a Seniors Tournament quarterfinal a long time ago.)

      My understanding is they’ve since changed that policy – a zero game will go to a tiebreaker.

      • Kelly permalink

        It was the second QF of the 1991 Seniors Tournament (there was a tie for the lead in that game going into FJ!). I heard about that rule change, but I’m not sure if it applies to QFs too or not (since the contestants are already sequestered there is no issue about the fairness of an extra wildcard slot in that round).

What do you think?