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November 11, 2015

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 – ToC2015 QF #3

2015 Tournament of Champions
Pre-tourney stats: Pre-Final position Forrest Bouncing
Coryat scores
QF preview SF preview
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

Two great games to kick off this quarterfinal week. How will Matt, John, and Jennifer fare?

As many people predicted (myself included), Matt racked up a huge score heading into Final, but John had a great game as well.

Combined, our players have $52,100 – just shy of the $54,000 available on the board. (Of course, Daily Doubles helped pad that a little, but still – one of the highest competitive totals we’ve seen.)

Matt

Jackson

John

Schultz

Jennifer

Giles

24,900 17,800 10,400

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

ABBREVIATIONS

Here’s where they are right now, and what my calculator suggests. Remember, no one here knows the results of the first two games, and that the wild-card cut-off is already unusually high:

Matt John Jennifer
24,900 17,800 10,400
Current percentile 99% 96% 61%
20% confidence 0 0 300
30% confidence 0 0 2,700
40% confidence 0 0 3,700
50% confidence 0 0 5,200
60% confidence 0 800 6,100
70% confidence 0 800 6,100
80% confidence 0 2,300 9,200

I suspect that Matt will stand pat, John will wager little or nothing, and Jennifer will go big.

What actually happened

Matt John Jennifer
24,900 17,800 10,400
2 2,800 6,600
24,898 15,000 3,800
min max
3,001 10,400
7,401
4,401

This was an abominable Final clue. Quit trying to be cute, writers – Final Jeopardy!, particularly in the Tournament of Champions, is no time for wordplay or for drawing confusing, non-existent relationships between two things that just happen to share the same abbreviation.

(See also: “Who are Brat and Blatt?”)

Quarterfinal winners:

  1. Catherine Hardee
  2. Brennan Bushee
  3. Matt Jackson

Wild-card race:

  1. Vaughn Winchell – 16,599 (99%)
  2. John Schultz – 15,000 (99%)
  3. Dan Feitel – 14,000 (85%)
  4. Kristin Sausville – 12,800 (38%)
  5. Greg Seroka – 11,500
  6. Jennifer Giles – 3,800

Percentage represents probability of advancing based on past ToC data. Although it’s not a Gaussian distribution, the average non-winning score is 8,290 with standard deviation 6,306.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

ABBREVIATIONS
ITS MEANING AS AN INDIVIDUAL PRODUCT DATES TO 1977; ITS MEANING AS CONFORMING TO ORTHODOX OPINION DATES TO 1986

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – November 11, 2015
2015 Tournament of Champions
Pre-tourney stats: Pre-Final position Forrest Bouncing
Coryat scores
QF preview SF preview
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

2 Comments
  1. jdgalt permalink

    I don’t buy the “orthodox opinion” definition. P.C. means conforming to leftist (or authoritarian in the case of Communist regimes where it originally appeared) views. And I’m sure it’s older than 1986, though that may be the year the O.E.D. accepted it.

What do you think?