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November 10, 2015

Tuesday, November 10, 2015 – ToC2015 QF #2

2015 Tournament of Champions
Pre-tourney stats: Pre-Final position Forrest Bouncing
Coryat scores
QF preview SF preview
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

We kicked off the 2015 Tournament of Champions with an exciting match. Will Greg, Brennan, and Kristin keep it up?

Yes, they will – and the only downside is that they’re giving me a bit of a headache.

Here are our scores heading into Final:

Greg

Seroka

Brennan

Bushee

Kristin

Sausville

13,000 12,000 12,800

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

INAUGURAL ADDRESSES

This is really a crap shoot; going for broke is a bad idea here because even 18,000 is enough to basically guarantee a wild card. Here’s what my model suggests each player wager depending on confidence in the category:

Greg Brennan Kristin
13,000 12,000 12,800
Current percentile 78% 74% 77%
20% confidence 0 0 0
30% confidence 0 0 0
40% confidence 0 0 0
50% confidence 0 0 0
60% confidence 600 5,600 0
70% confidence 6,600 5,600 7,300
80% confidence 7,100 8,100 7,300

The 60% row is somewhat strange – the calculator recommends that Kristin wager zero but that Brennan, with just 800 less, put up about half his total.

What actually happened

Greg Brennan Kristin
13,000 12,000 12,800
1,500 6,000 0
11,500 18,000 12,800

Turns out that’s exactly what he did – and he was the only player to respond correctly. Congratulations, Brennan!

We’ll see if Kristin and Greg can hang on – usually, those would be pretty decent scores, but they’re already on the bubble.

Quarterfinal winners:

  1. Catherine Hardee
  2. Brennan Bushee

Wild-card race:

  1. Vaughn Winchell – 16,599 (98%)
  2. Dan Feitel – 14,000 (92%)
  3. Kristin Sausville – 12,800 (62%)
  4. Greg Seroka – 11,500 (12%)

Percentage represents probability of advancing based on past ToC data. Although it’s not a Gaussian distribution, the average non-winning score is 8,290 with standard deviation 6,306.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

INAUGURAL ADDRESSES
HIS FIRST ADDRESS SPOKE OF “THE PRESENT HAPPY STATE”, “OUR PECULIAR FELICITY” AND OUR “HAPPY GOVERNMENT”

Correct response: Show

The Final Wager – November 10, 2015
2015 Tournament of Champions
Pre-tourney stats: Pre-Final position Forrest Bouncing
Coryat scores
QF preview SF preview
QF1 QF2 QF3 QF4 QF5 SF1 SF2 SF3 F1 F2

5 Comments
  1. Mike permalink

    In the latter days of the quarterfinal round, do the contestants know the results from the prior days? This would give quite an advantage to someone playing on day 5 of the quarterfinal round, if he or she knows exactly what score to beat in order to be the final runner-up who advances.

  2. jdgalt permalink

    Shouldn’t that be “addresses”?

What do you think?