ToC2015: Strength by pre-Final position
2015 Tournament of Champions | |||||||||
Pre-tourney stats: | Pre-Final position | Forrest Bouncing | |||||||
Coryat scores | |||||||||
QF preview | SF preview | ||||||||
QF1 | QF2 | QF3 | QF4 | QF5 | SF1 | SF2 | SF3 | F1 | F2 |
Over the next few days, we’re going to use numbers to size up the field of the 2015 Tournament of Champions, which begins this coming Monday. (Be sure to check out the official Jeopardy! site for the event.)
The first approach is based on an analysis I did after Kerry Greene’s six-win run back in April. As you might recall, she became just the fourth player to win 3 straight games when trailing heading into Final Jeopardy!, and the first five-timer to do so. (Andrew Haringer later one-upped her, winning his first four games from second before locking his fifth.)
As I’ve pointed out several times, including on my guest post over at the Jeopardy! website, a player in the lead heading into Final is much more likely to win. Therefore, I derived a rough estimation of each player’s pre-Final prowess in regular play.
For each game, a player earned points based on the percentage chance of winning based on pre-Final position. I then divided that total by the player’s number of games.
- Lock: 100
- First: 65
- Second: 25
- Third: 10
- Eliminated: 0
Using this metric, Matt Jackson and Alex Jacob crush the field. (As Jennifer Giles qualified in a tournament, she had only 2 one-day games, so I’ve excluded her.)
Note: due to an error in my original calculations, some players had too many ‘locks’ instead of ‘firsts’. That has been corrected.
Contestant | Wins | Lock | First | Second | Third | Rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alex Jacob | 6 | 4 | 3 | 85.00 | ||
Andrew Haringer | 5 | 1 | 5 | 37.50 | ||
Brennan Bushee | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 64.17 | |
Catherine Hardee | 4 | 4 | 1 | 57.00 | ||
Dan Feitel | 5 | 1 | 5 | 70.83 | ||
Elliot Yates | 4 | 2 | 3 | 55.00 | ||
Greg Seroka | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 68.75 | |
John Schultz | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 61.67 | |
Kerry Greene | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 40.00 | |
Kristin Sausville | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 63.33 | |
Matt Jackson | 13 | 11 | 3 | 92.50 | ||
Michael Bilow | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.25 | |
Scott Lord | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 48.33 |
Vaughn Winchell | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 70.00 |
This metric has a few shortcomings, namely that these positions are overly simplistic. For example, first place in a tight three-way contest is much different from first place where second is crushed and third is mathematically eliminated.
I could go back and calculate ratings based on actual scores and wagers, but I think that’s overcomplicating what’s already verging on pseudo-science. This is more of a gut check.
For fun, here are the ratings of the regular-play competitors in the 2014 Tournament of Champions, along with their position before Final in their quarterfinal games. (Collins, Chu, and Ingram were the finalists.)
Contestant | Wins | Lock | First | Second | Third | Rating | QF pre-Final |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Julia Collins | 20 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 83.10 | first | |
Arthur Chu | 11 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 80.83 | first | |
Ben Ingram | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 62.22 | first |
Drew Horwood | 8 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 52.22 | out |
Andrew Moore | 6 | 2 | 5 | 75.00 | second | ||
Jared Hall | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 60.71 | third |
Sandie Baker | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 74.29 | second | |
Joshua Brakhage | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 48.33 | second |
Rani Peffer | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 48.33 | third |
Rebecca Rider | 5 | 5 | 1 | 55.83 | third | ||
Sarah McNitt | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 64.17 | second | |
Mark Japinga | 4 | 2 | 3 | 41.00 | first |
I like it, Keith. I actually used my own formula to list the contestants. My order, which seems a bit surprising at points, is (with points to the nearest hundredth):
1. Matt Jackson 68.17 (actually a little higher due to a math error)
2. Elliot Yates 30.91
3. Brennan Bushee 27.98
4. Michael Bilow 21.75
5. Vaughn Winchell 20.35
6. Greg Seroka 18.55
7. Catherine Hardee 18.14
8. Andrew Haringer 17.29
9. Alex Jacob 15.20
10. Scott Lord 14.90
11. Kerry Greene 13.64
12. Jennifer Giles 9.84
13. John Schultz 9.57
14. Kristin Sausville 9.55
15. Dan Feitel 8.91
I wonder if using your system there’s a pattern that emerges. Apparently, using days and winnings (not including Tournament Winners, like Teachers’ or College), most commonly the winners of ToCs come from 1st or 8th place, and never from 5-7.
And the picture spoils it! Now I know that Michael Bilow will be in the ToC! (Not that I’m not happy about that, though.)
Well, looking at how well they wagered during final, here’s what I’ve come up with for how the field stacks up (also ignoring Jennifer)
1: Greg Seroka – 3.00 – 4 wagers – 3 locks
2: Vaughn Winchell – 3.00 – 4 wagers – 2 locks
3: Matthew Jackson – 3.00 – 3 wagers – 11 locks
4: Alex Jacob – 3.00 – 3 wagers – 4 locks
5: Michael Billow – 3.00 – 1 wager
6: Kristin Sausville – 2.75
7: John Schultz – 2.40 – 5 wagers – 1 lock – 5 leads
8: Scott Lord – 2.40 – 5 wagers – 1 lock – 2 leads
9: Brennan Bushee – 2.00
10: Kerry Green – 0.71
11: Elliot Yates – (0.33)
12: Andrew Haringer – (0.60) – 5 wagers – 1 lock
13: Catherine Hardee – (0.60) – 5 wagers – 0 locks
14: Dan Feitel – (1.40)
Average – 1.373