ToC2015: Strength by pre-Final position

Over the next few days, we’re going to use numbers to size up the field of the 2015 Tournament of Champions, which begins this coming Monday. (Be sure to check out the official Jeopardy! site for the event.)

The first approach is based on an analysis I did after Kerry Greene’s six-win run back in April. As you might recall, she became just the fourth player to win 3 straight games when trailing heading into Final Jeopardy!, and the first five-timer to do so. (Andrew Haringer later one-upped her, winning his first four games from second before locking his fifth.)

As I’ve pointed out several times, including on my guest post over at the Jeopardy! website, a player in the lead heading into Final is much more likely to win. Therefore, I derived a rough estimation of each player’s pre-Final prowess in regular play.

For each game, a player earned points based on the percentage chance of winning based on pre-Final position. I then divided that total by the player’s number of games.

• Lock: 100
• First: 65
• Second: 25
• Third: 10
• Eliminated: 0

Using this metric, Matt Jackson and Alex Jacob crush the field. (As Jennifer Giles qualified in a tournament, she had only 2 one-day games, so I’ve excluded her.)

Note: due to an error in my original calculations, some players had too many ‘locks’ instead of ‘firsts’. That has been corrected.

This metric has a few shortcomings, namely that these positions are overly simplistic. For example, first place in a tight three-way contest is much different from first place where second is crushed and third is mathematically eliminated.

I could go back and calculate ratings based on actual scores and wagers, but I think that’s overcomplicating what’s already verging on pseudo-science. This is more of a gut check.

For fun, here are the ratings of the regular-play competitors in the 2014 Tournament of Champions, along with their position before Final in their quarterfinal games. (Collins, Chu, and Ingram were the finalists.)