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July 29, 2015

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

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Hey! Look what I found! I won’t go thirsty tonight!The Final Wager – July 29, 2015

It’s the dregs of a bottle of Gosling’s Black Rum! I’ll need it after this – seriously, what was everyone thinking here? (Calculations are below the post.)

Jonathan Jennifer Colby
18,100 10,800 15,200
18,100 10,786 15,000
0 14 200
min max min max min max
12,301 14,599 801 1,999 6,401 8,799
6,501 7,299 4,401 4,999 2,901 3,599
3,501 5,799

I joked about this last week, but due to popular demand, I’ve opened a fundraiser for my liquor cabinet.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to the bar.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

WOMEN AUTHORS
THIS WOMAN WHO PASSED AWAY IN 2015 WROTE WHAT IS BILLED AS AUSTRALIA’S “GONE WITH THE WIND”
Correct response: Show
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First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Colby doubles his score, he’ll have 30,400.

To cover this all-in wager, Jonathan will need to wager 12,300.

Jonathan
Jennifer
Colby
18,100 10,800 15,200
12,300 15,200
30,400 30,400
min max min max min max
12,300

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Jonathan with 5,800.

To stay above his total, Colby can wager up to 9,400.

Jennifer can wager up to 5,000.

Jonathan
Jennifer
Colby
18,100 10,800 15,200
12,300 5,000 9,400
5,800 5,800 5,800
min max min max min max
12,300 5,000 9,400

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Jennifer at 21,600.

To cover this, Colby should wager at least 6,400.

(Jonathan would need to wager at least 3,500, but this is somewhat questionable.)

Jonathan
Jennifer
Colby
18,100 10,800 15,200
3,500 10,800 6,400
21,600 21,600 21,600
min max min max min max
12,300 5,000 6,400 9,400
3,500

If Colby is incorrect with that wager, Jennifer can wager up to 2,000 to stay above his total.

Jonathan
Jennifer
Colby
18,100 10,800 15,200
2,000 6,400
8,800 8,800
min max min max min max
12,300 2,000 6,400 9,400
5,000
3,500

We’ll throw in the 3,800 minimum for Jennifer to cover Jonathan’s small range.

Jonathan
Jennifer
Colby
18,100 10,800 15,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
12,300 2,000 6,400 9,400
3,800 5,000
3,500

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Colby makes the rational maximum wager of 9,400, Jonathan will need to wager 6,500 to cover him.

Jonathan
Jennifer
Colby
18,100 10,800 15,200
6,500 9,400
24,600 24,600
min max min max min max
12,300 2,000 6,400 9,400
6,500 3,800 5,000
3,500

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 11,600.

To stay above him, Colby can wager up to 3,600.

Jennifer might consider risking at least 800.

Jonathan
Jennifer
Colby
18,100 10,800 15,200
6,500 800 3,600
11,600 11,600 11,600
min max min max min max
12,300 800 2,000 6,400 9,400
6,500 3,800 5,000 3,600
3,500

That should be enough of a range for our players.

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Jonathan and Colby: 2,900
Jonathan and Jennifer: 7,300
Colby and Jennifer: 4,400

Jonathan
Jennifer
Colby
18,100 10,800 15,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
12,300 14,600 800 2,000 6,400 8,800
6,500 7,300 4,400 5,000 2,900 3,600
3,500 5,800
8 Comments
  1. clint permalink

    Why is Jennifer’s wager red? You’re recommended wagers don’t have her covering a zero from the leader.

    • Aaron Fisher permalink

      That was my thought as well. Jennifer’s wager only looks horrible in the context of Jonathan’s screw up. Really though, if she’s wagering over 5,000, she should be going all in. And there are a few very good reasons to wager over 5,000.

    • I feel the probability of Jonathan laying a goose egg is very small. I’ll do some research.

  2. I don’t know what’s funnier: the fact that Jennifer could’ve won with $14, the fact that Colby won with $200, or the fact that Keith actually has booze for these wagers.

  3. Jeff permalink

    Jonathan’s wager was inexplicable. How anyone can go on the show and not learn the basics of this aspect of the game is beyond me.

  4. Dan Spartan permalink

    Anytime a 3rd place player needs 1st and 2nd to miss to have any reasonable* chance to win, they should bet the minimum of their range since they are a 2:1 dog to get FJ correct assuming 1st and 2nd miss (wrong-wrong-wrong happens ~twice as often as wrong-wrong-right).

    *Assumes that 1st and 2nd at least bet to cover 3rd. which has Ken notes, will happen at a very high frequency.

  5. Peter permalink

    I looked through all two years of TFW just to see how bad these past two days were. Yesterday was only the second time everyone received either Red or Grey wagers, and it was the first time that there were three players involved. Turns out, it would only take a single day for that to happen again.
    Even worse, this season had shaped up better; these were only the second and third days this season which had three pink or worse wagers, and the forth and fifth where everyone had that. This is in contrast to the seven or nine respectively that happened last season.

What do you think?