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July 14, 2015

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

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I don’t know how you feel about this whole carousel of champs thing, but I do know the 4- and 3-time champs on the TOC bubble are lovin’ it.The Final Wager – July 14, 2015

Phil Salathe is our tenth consecutive different player at podium #1 – and he is trailing heading into Final.

Phil

Salathe

Ben

Hemmens

Val

Narehood

13,400 16,200 4,400

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

HISTORIC AMERICANS

For the first time in a while, we have a Shore’s Conjecture situation.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Phil doubles his score, he’ll have 26,800.

To cover this all-in wager, Ben will need to wager 10,600.

Phil
Ben
Val
13,400 16,200 4,400
13,400 10,600
26,800 26,800
min max min max min max
10,600

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Ben with 5,600.

To stay above his total, Phil can wager up to 7,800.

Val must respond correctly to have a shot, so all-in is the way to go.

Phil
Ben
Val
13,400 16,200 4,400
7,800 10,600 1,200
5,600 5,600 5,600
min max min max min max
7,800 10,600 1,200*

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Val at 8,800.

To stay above her, Phil can wager at most 4,600.

Ben could wager at most 7,400.

Phil
Ben
Val
13,400 16,200 4,400
4,600 7,400 4,400
8,800 8,800 8,800
min max min max min max
4,600 10,600 1,200*
7,800
7,400

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Phil
Ben
Val
13,400 16,200 4,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
4,600 10,600 1,200*
7,800
7,400

Second-order calculations

Shoretegic wagers

If Phil chooses to stay above a double-up by Val, he will have at most 18,000.

Ben can cover that with a wager of 1,800.

Phil
Ben
Val
13,400 16,200 4,400
4,600 1,800
18,000 18,000
min max min max min max
4,600 10,600 1,200*
7,800 1,800
7,400

To get above Ben’s “Shoretegic” total, Phil must wager 1,000.

Phil
Ben
Val
13,400 16,200 4,400
1,000 1,800
14,400 18,000
min max min max min max
1,000 4,600 10,600 1,200*
7,800 1,800
7,400

Second’s max vs. first

If Phil makes the rational maximum wager of 7,800, Ben will need to wager 5,000 to cover him.

Phil
Ben
Val
13,400 16,200 4,400
7,800 5,000
21,200 21,200
min max min max min max
1,000 4,600 10,600 1,200*
7,800 1,800
5,000 7,400

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 11,200.

To stay above him, Phil can wager up to 2,200.

Phil
Ben
Val
13,400 16,200 4,400
2,200 5,000
11,200 11,200
min max min max min max
1,000 2,200 10,600 1,200*
4,600 1,800
7,800 5,000 7,400

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Phil
Ben
Val
13,400 16,200 4,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
1,000 2,200 10,600 1,200*
4,600 1,800
7,800 5,000 7,400

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Ben and Phil: 2,800
Ben and Val: 11,800
Phil and Val: 9,000

Phil
Ben
Val
13,400 16,200 4,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
1,000 2,200 10,600 11,800 1,200*
2,800 4,600 1,800 2,800
5,600 7,800 5,000 5,600

Val’s forced into her wager, but Phil and Ben have a host of options.

If I’m Ben, I take my destiny into my own hands.

If I’m Phil, I make the Shoretegic play.

What actually happened

Phil Ben Val
13,400 16,200 4,400
4,599 10,601 4,400
17,999 26,801 0
min max min max
2,801 4,599 10,601 11,799 4,400
5,601 7,799 1,801 2,799
1,001 2,199 5,001 5,599

A triple green! And a new champion! Oh, what a night!

I thought this was a tough clue – nice job by the two gentlemen to get it.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

HISTORIC AMERICANS
THE DEBATE TEAM AT PHILLIPS EXETER ACADEMY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE IS NAMED FOR THIS MAN WHO ENTERED THE ACADEMY IN 1796
Correct response: Show
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One Comment
  1. Shane permalink

    What’s funny about this situation is that the exact same scores for 1st 2nd and 3rd happened on July 14, 2014, one year ago exactly.

What do you think?