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July 7, 2015

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

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Lots to discuss tonight – I’m pretty excited.The Final Wager – July 7, 2015

The Penultimate Wager is quite intriguing – I’ll edit this post in a bit to include information on that. I also talk about it in the video.

Anyway, here are our scores heading into Final:

Jess

Lindoerfer

Sawyer

Morgan

Bridget

Ker

8,400 7,600 10,200

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIONS

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Jess doubles her score, she’ll have 16,800.

To cover this all-in wager, Bridget will need to wager 6,600.

Jess
Sawyer
Bridget
8,400 7,600 10,200
8,400 6,600
16,800 16,800
min max min max min max
6,600

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Bridget with 3,600.

To stay above her total, Jess can wager up to 4,800.

Sawyer can wager up to 4,000.

Jess
Sawyer
Bridget
8,400 7,600 10,200
4,800 4,000 6,600
3,600 3,600 3,600
min max min max min max
4,800 4,000 6,600

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Sawyer at 15,200.

To cover this, Jess should wager at least 6,800. In this case, though, she will lose on an incorrect response, so she might as well wager everything.

Jess
Sawyer
Bridget
8,400 7,600 10,200
6,800 7,600 5,000
15,200 15,200 15,200
min max min max min max
6,800* 4,000 6,600
4,800
5,000

Sawyer could also cap his wager at 2,400 if he’s worried about the 5,00 wager from Bridget.

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Jess makes the rational maximum wager of 4,800, Bridget will need to wager 3,000 to cover her.

Jess
Sawyer
Bridget
8,400 7,600 10,200
4,800 3,000
13,200 13,200
min max min max min max
6,800 4,000 6,600
4,800
2,400 5,000

Not a smart wager.

Third’s max vs. first

Jess
Sawyer
Bridget
8,400 7,600 10,200
3,200 4,000 1,400
11,600 11,600 11,600
min max min max min max
6,800 4,000 6,600
3,200 4,800
2,400 5,000

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Bridget with 3,600.

Jess
Sawyer
Bridget
8,400 7,600 10,200
3,200 2,400 1,400
5,200 5,200 8,800
min max min max min max
6,800 4,000 6,600
3,200 4,800
2,400 5,000

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Jess
Sawyer
Bridget
8,400 7,600 10,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
6,800 4,000 6,600
3,200 4,800
2,400 5,000

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Bridget and Jess: 1,800
Bridget and Sawyer: 2,600
Jess and Sawyer: 800

Jess
Sawyer
Bridget
8,400 7,600 10,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
6,800 1,600 2,400 6,600
3,600 4,800 2,600 4,000
800 5,000 5,200

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Jess Sawyer Bridget
8,400 7,600 10,200
6,801 3,990 6,601
1,599 11,590 3,599
min max min max min max
8,400 1,601 2,399 6,601
3,601 4,799 2,601 3,999
799 5,001 5,199

Congrats to Sawyer, who is a good friend of The Final Wager. Here’s hoping he can repeat Wednesday!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIONS
DUE TO DEVELOPMENTS IN 2012, THIS ANNUAL CONTEST NOW LISTS NO WINNER FROM THE YEARS 1999-2005
Correct response: Show
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