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July 2, 2015

Thursday, July 2, 2015

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Nearly two seasons in the bag here on The Final Wager and I can’t believe people are still messing up.The Final Wager – July 2, 2015

No Penultimate Wager heart attacks tonight, but these are some tricky scores:

Alex

Irvine

Elsa

Angrist

Jon

Lubin

16,400 14,200 7,800

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

EUROPEAN ARTISTS

Now let’s see what each player should do. Remember, we save the dollar changes until the end.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Elsa doubles her score, she’ll have 28,400.

To cover this all-in wager, Alex will need to wager 12,000.

Alex
Elsa
Jon
16,400 14,200 7,800
12,000 14,200
28,400 28,400
min max min max min max
12,000

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Alex with 4,400.

To stay above his total, Elsa can wager up to 9,800.

Jon can wager up to 3,400.

Alex
Elsa
Jon
16,400 14,200 7,800
12,000 9,800 3,400
4,400 4,400 4,400
min max min max min max
12,000 9,800 3,400

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Jon at 15,600.

To cover this, Elsa should wager at least 1,400.

Alex could wager at most 800.

Alex
Elsa
Jon
16,400 14,200 7,800
800 1,400 7,800
15,600 15,600 15,600
min max min max min max
12,000 1,400 9,800 3,400
800

Jon would need to wager at least 5,000. All in! All in!

Alex
Elsa
Jon
16,400 14,200 7,800
1,400 5,000
12,800 12,800
min max min max min max
12,000 1,400 9,800 5,000*
3,400
800

Elsa might also consider 3,000 to cover that 800 wager by Alex.

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Alex
Elsa
Jon
16,400 14,200 7,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
12,000 3,000 9,800 5,000*
1,400 3,400
800

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Elsa makes the rational maximum wager of 9,800, Alex will need to wager 7,600 to cover her.

Alex
Elsa
Jon
16,400 14,200 7,800
7,600 9,800
24,000 24,000
min max min max min max
12,000 3,000 9,800 5,000*
7,600 1,400 3,400
800

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 8,800.

To stay above him, Elsa can wager up to 5,400.

Jon might consider risking at least 1,000.

Alex
Elsa
Jon
16,400 14,200 7,800
7,600 5,400 1,000
8,800 8,800 8,800
min max min max min max
12,000 3,000 5,400 5,000*
7,600 1,400 1,000 3,400
800 9,800

Third’s max vs. first

Not overly concerned here, but hey, math is math…

Alex
Elsa
Jon
16,400 14,200 7,800
5,200 3,000 3,400
11,200 11,200 11,200
min max min max min max
12,000 3,000 5,400 5,000*
7,600 1,400 3,000 1,000 3,400
800 9,800

Two orders deep:

Alex
Elsa
Jon
16,400 14,200 7,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
12,000 3,000 5,400 5,000*
7,600 1,400 3,000 1,000 3,400
800 9,800

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Alex and Elsa: 2,200
Alex and Jon: 8,600
Elsa and Jon: 6,400

Alex
Elsa
Jon
16,400 14,200 7,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
12,000 4,400 5,400 6,400*
7,600 8,600 1,400 3,000 1,000 3,400
800 6,400

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Alex Elsa Jon
16,400 14,200 7,800
12,001 10,000 7,799
4,399 4,200 15,599
min max min max min max
12,001 4,401 5,399 7,800
799 1,401 2,999 1,001 3,399
7,601 8,599

No, no, no, Elsa! We were so close to having a good evening, too.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

EUROPEAN ARTISTS
IN 1890 A CRITIC SAID THIS ARTIST “DIRECTS HIS BRUSH WITH ENORMOUS DABS OF IMPASTO OF VERY PURE COLOR IN SINUOUS TRAILS”
Correct response: Show
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