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July 1, 2015

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

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I’m thankful I had to be sober immediately after tonight’s episode, or I might be in the hospital.The Final Wager – July 1, 2015

Oh, hey – yet another Penultimate Wager. And this one’s really easy!

Brandon

Powell

Rena

Traube

Alex

Irvine

12,800 7,600 20,000
PENULTIMATE WAGER

Any nerd can tell you that double 12,800 is 25,600 – that’s an easy power-of-two calculation. Yet instead of going for $5,601, Alex wagered $5,000!

If Alex doesn’t want to risk so much, he should look to lock out Rena – remember that he’d have to have more than second + third to lock her out of contention.

$401 is perfect – and as much as $799 to maintain the crush over Brandon (so that Brandon would not have 2/3 of Alex’s score).

Anyway, Alex missed the clue. So here are our scores heading into Final:

Brandon

Rena

Alex

12,800 7,600 15,000

And we’ve got this category in play:

DOING BUSINESS INTERNATIONALLY

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Brandon doubles his score, he’ll have 25,600.

To cover this all-in wager, Alex will need to wager 10,600.

Brandon
Rena
Alex
12,800 7,600 15,000
12,800 10,600
25,600 25,600
min max min max min max
10,600

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Alex with 4,400.

To stay above his total, Brandon can wager up to 8,400.

Rena can wager up to 3,200.

Brandon
Rena
Alex
12,800 7,600 15,000
8,400 3,200 10,600
4,400 4,400 4,400
min max min max min max
8,400 3,200 10,600

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Rena at 15,200.

To cover this, Brandon should wager at least 2,400.

Alex would need to wager at least 200 if he so chooses. (Bad idea, I think.)

Brandon
Rena
Alex
12,800 7,600 15,000
2,400 7,600 200
15,200 15,200 15,200
min max min max min max
2,400 8,400 3,200 10,600
200

Rena would need to wager at least 2,800. She could also wager basically everything if she’s worried about Alex’s small 200 wager.

Brandon
Rena
Alex
12,800 7,600 15,000
2,400 2,800
10,400 10,400
min max min max min max
2,400 8,400 2,800 3,200 10,600
7,200* 200

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Brandon
Rena
Alex
12,800 7,600 15,000
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
2,400 8,400 2,800 3,200 10,600
7,200* 200

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Brandon makes the rational maximum wager of 8,400, Alex will need to wager 6,200 to cover him.

Brandon
Rena
Alex
12,800 7,600 15,000
8,400 6,200
21,200 21,200
min max min max min max
2,400 8,400 2,800 3,200 10,600
6,200
7,200* 200

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 8,800.

To stay above him, Brandon can wager up to 4,000.

Rena might consider risking at least 1,200. We’ll leave that out of it.

Brandon
Rena
Alex
12,800 7,600 15,000
4,000 1,200 6,200
8,800 8,800 8,800
min max min max min max
2,400 4,000 2,800 3,200 10,600
8,400 6,200
7,200* 200

Third’s max vs. first

Rena would have 10,800 with a correct response and a rational maximum wager.

Brandon
Rena
Alex
12,800 7,600 15,000
2,000 3,200 4,200
10,800 10,800 10,800
min max min max min max
2,400 4,000 2,800 3,200 10,600
8,400 6,200
2,000 7,200* 200

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Brandon
Rena
Alex
12,800 7,600 15,000
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
2,400 4,000 2,800 3,200 10,600
8,400 6,200
2,000 7,200* 200

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Alex and Brandon: 2,200
Alex and Rena: 7,400
Brandon and Rena: 5,200

Brandon
Rena
Alex
12,800 7,600 15,000
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
2,400 4,000 2,800 3,200 10,600
4,400 5,200 6,200 7,400
2,000 7,400* 200 2,200

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Brandon Rena Alex
12,800 7,600 15,000
7,200 7,401 11,000
5,600 199 26,000
min max min max min max
2,401 3,999 2,801 3,199 10,601
4,401 5,199 7,600 6,201 7,399
1,999 201 2,199

No harm, no foul?

No: process > outcome here at The Final Wager.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

DOING BUSINESS INTERNATIONALLY
THIS U.S. RETAILER’S 133 CANADIAN STORES CLOSED IN 2015; ITS CEO SAID, “WE MISSED THE MARK… BY TAKING ON TOO MUCH TOO FAST”
Correct response: Show
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2 Comments
  1. 401 should be 700?

  2. Sorry 401 should be 399?

What do you think?