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June 24, 2015

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

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It’s been a wild week, wagering-wise. And for Wednesday, I briefly considered heading to the gym.The Final Wager – June 24, 2015

Who knows what would have transpired? I liked Shayna’s Penultimate Wager (although I haven’t really looked into it).

Here are our scores heading into Final:

Matt

Pressman

Shayna

Kravetz

Pat

Devane

15,200 18,700 8,200

With this category:

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Everyone’s going to have some mind games to deal with.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Matt doubles his score, he’ll have 30,400.

To cover this all-in wager, Shayna will need to wager 11,700.

Matt
Shayna
Pat
15,200 18,700 8,200
15,200 11,700
30,400 30,400
min max min max min max
11,700

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Shayna with 7,000.

To stay above her total, Matt can wager up to 8,200.

Pat can wager up to 1,200.

Matt
Shayna
Pat
15,200 18,700 8,200
8,200 11,700 1,200
7,000 7,000 7,000
min max min max min max
8,200 11,700 1,200

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Pat at 16,400.

To cover this, Matt should wager at least 1,200.

Shayna could wager at most 2,300.

Matt
Shayna
Pat
15,200 18,700 8,200
1,200 2,300 8,200
16,400 16,400 16,400
min max min max min max
1,200 8,200 11,700 1,200
2,300

Pat would need to wager at least 5,800. That means all-in; I prefer this approach.

Matt
Shayna
Pat
15,200 18,700 8,200
1,200 5,800
14,000 14,000
min max min max min max
1,200 8,200 11,700 5,800*
1,200
2,300

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Matt
Shayna
Pat
15,200 18,700 8,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
1,200 8,200 11,700 5,800*
1,200
2,300

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Matt makes the rational maximum wager of 8,200, Shayna will need to wager 4,700 to cover him.

Matt
Shayna
Pat
15,200 18,700 8,200
8,200 4,700
23,400 23,400
min max min max min max
1,200 8,200 11,700 5,800*
4,700 1,200
2,300

If she’s wrong with that wager, she’ll be left with 14,000.

To stay above her, Matt can wager up to 1,200. This gives us our first wager-to-tie range.

Matt
Shayna
Pat
15,200 18,700 8,200
1,200 4,700 5,800
14,000 14,000 14,000
min max min max min max
1,200 1,200 11,700 5,800*
8,200 4,700 1,200
2,300

Third’s max vs. first

If Pat goes for that 1,200 amount, Matt could stay above him with a wager of 5,800, while it’s 9,300 for Shayna.

Matt
Shayna
Pat
15,200 18,700 8,200
5,800 9,300 1,200
9,400 9,400 9,400
min max min max min max
1,200 1,200 11,700 5,800*
5,800 4,700 9,300 1,200
8,200 2,300

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Matt
Shayna
Pat
15,200 18,700 8,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
1,200 1,200 11,700 5,800*
5,800 4,700 9,300 1,200
8,200 2,300

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Shayna and Matt: 3,500
Shayna and Pat: 10,500
Matt and Pat: 7,000

Matt
Shayna
Pat
15,200 18,700 8,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
1,200 1,200 11,700 5,800*
3,500 5,800 4,700 7,000 1,200
7,000 7,000 2,300

Note that to cover an “unsafe” (or “Colbyesque“) wager from Shayna, Matt will have to wager 7,000 – exactly the amount by which he leads Pat.

What actually happened

Matt Shayna Pat
15,200 18,700 8,200
7,000 3,498 8,199
22,200 22,198 16,399
min max min max min max
7,000 ! 11,701 8,200
3,501 5,799 4,701 6,999 1,199
1,200 ! 2,299

Impressive wagering by Matt – he clearly knew what he was doing. Well done, sir.

Shayna, not so much. If she wanted to play conservatively, she should have risked no more than 2,299 to keep Pat out of contention.

Matt has now won 2 games and $36,000, and I deem his the second-best wager this season after Christine Kim’s True Penultimate Wager in January.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

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IN 2014 CNN DECLARED ZAMBIA’S GUY SCOTT THE FIRST WHITE PRESIDENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SINCE THIS MAN IN 1994
Correct response: Show
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2 Comments
  1. Ricardo permalink

    Analysis well done-kudos. I was watching and immediately I knew something was wrong with her wager when she ends up losing by $2. Frankly, it always amazes me about the effort that contestants put into their knowledge of trivia yet so often their knowledge of math and general odds and dollar counts is so lacking. Further, and I know this might be an unpopular take but I see it a lot on the show, a lot of the females on Jeopardy are beyond ultra conservative with their wagering (like this situation) and it almost seems like they actually want to lose in order to maintain the social order. Really.

  2. Aaron Fisher permalink

    > And don’t worry, you’ll be getting a video soon.

    I’m starting to worry.

What do you think?