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June 22, 2015

Monday, June 22, 2015

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The last three players to sweep an entire week have lost on a Monday. Will five-timer Brennan Bushee suffer the same fate?The Final Wager – June 22, 2015

For the first time, he’s trailing heading into Final – but he has a perfect FJ! record to fall back on.

Brennan

Bushee

Kay

Yung

Sacha

Samotin

11,800 16,200 9,800

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

THE FUTURE OF TELEVISION

This one could get hairy. (Whoops – how’d that glass of scotch get into my hand?)

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Brennan doubles his score, he’ll have 23,600.

To cover this all-in wager, Kay will need to wager 7,400.

Brennan
Kay
Sacha
11,800 16,200 9,800
11,800 7,400
23,600 23,600
min max min max min max
7,400

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Kay with 8,800.

To stay above her total, Brennan can wager up to 3,000.

Sacha can wager up to 1,000.

Brennan
Kay
Sacha
11,800 16,200 9,800
3,000 7,400 1,000
8,800 8,800 8,800
min max min max min max
3,000 7,400 1,000

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Sacha at 19,600.

To cover this, Brennan should wager at least 7,800. In this case, though, he will lose on an incorrect response, so he might as well wager everything.

Brennan
Kay
Sacha
11,800 16,200 9,800
7,800 3,400 9,800
19,600 19,600 19,600
min max min max min max
7,800* 7,400 1,000
3,000
3,400

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Brennan
Kay
Sacha
11,800 16,200 9,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
7,800* 7,400 1,000
3,000
3,400

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Brennan makes the rational maximum wager of 3,000, Kay will need to wager 1,400 to stay above him.

Brennan
Kay
Sacha
11,800 16,200 9,800
3,000 1,400
14,800 14,800
min max min max min max
7,800* 7,400 1,000
3,000 3,400
1,400

In that case, Brennan would have to wager 5,800 and respond correctly. Another vote for the all-in wager.

Sacha might consider risking at least 7,800 – in other words, everything.

Brennan
Kay
Sacha
11,800 16,200 9,800
5,800 1,400 7,800
17,600 17,600 17,600
min max min max min max
7,800* 7,400 1,000
3,000 3,400 7,800*
1,400

Third’s max vs. first

Brennan should cap his lowball wager at 1,000 in case Sacha has a similar idea.

Brennan
Kay
Sacha
11,800 16,200 9,800
1,000 5,400 1,000
10,800 10,800 10,800
min max min max min max
7,800* 7,400 1,000
1,000 3,400 7,800*
3,000 1,400

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Brennan
Kay
Sacha
11,800 16,200 9,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
7,800* 7,400 1,000
1,000 3,400 7,800*
3,000 1,400

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Kay and Brennan: 4,400
Kay and Sacha: 6,400
Brennan and Sacha: 2,000

Brennan
Kay
Sacha
11,800 16,200 9,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
8,800* 7,400 8,800 1,000
1,000 3,400 4,400 7,800
1,400

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Brennan Kay Sacha
11,800 16,200 9,800
5,000 0 9,800
16,800 16,200 19,600
min max min max min max
11,800 7,401 8,799 999
999 3,401 4,399 9,800
1,399

Maybe Brennan is a believer in paying it forward – after all, he did get one hell of a gift on Friday’s episode.

I do want to point out my Corollary to Rule #2 of my original wagering tutorial: If you must get it right to be in contention, wager everything.

Don’t even think about it!

In any event, Brennan had a great run, winning $126,404 in his five victories. He’ll be back for the TOC – his six-Final streak still alive.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

THE FUTURE OF TELEVISION
THIS LIVE-ACTION TV SHOW ABOUT A FAMILY DEBUTED IN 1965 AND WAS SET IN 1997
Correct response: Show
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3 Comments
  1. Cerulean permalink

    I’d like to mention that if Brennan wagers the rational 999, he will have 12799. To stay above this, Kay will have to wager no more than 3400. But she has to wager at least 3400 against Sacha. Thus, it is a wager to tie scenario.
    On the other hand, practically everything seems to me to be a wager to tie scenario, so we probably shouldn’t go in so deeply.
    Besides, I tried figuring out and deriving the equation, and ended up (twice!, starting with two different equations) with 3C – 4A = 5B, which obviously makes no sense.

What do you think?