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June 19, 2015

Friday, June 19, 2015

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Man, good thing it’s Friday. That’s all I can say.The Final Wager – June 19, 2015

OK, first of all, I was mad about that Daily Double about a Dutch-named place (ugh, Spuyten Duyvil). And then Jennifer had the Penultimate Wager and totally blew it. More on that below.

And don’t worry, you’ll be getting a video soon.

Here’s where we’re sitting right now:

Brennan

Bushee

Chad

Capule

Jennifer

Shepherd

12,400 9,200 12,000

The category is almost inconsequential given these scores.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Jennifer doubles her score, she’ll have 24,000.

To cover this all-in wager, Brennan will need to wager 11,600.

Brennan
Chad
Jennifer
12,400 9,200 12,000
11,600 12,000
24,000 24,000
min max min max min max
11,600

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Brennan with 800.

To stay above his total, Jennifer can wager up to 11,200.

Chad can wager up to 8,400.

Brennan
Chad
Jennifer
12,400 9,200 12,000
11,600 8,400 11,200
800 800 800
min max min max min max
11,600 8,400 11,200

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Chad at 18,400.

To cover this, Jennifer should wager at least 6,400.

Brennan would need to wager at least 6,000, but we’ll return to this only if there’s a good reason.

Brennan
Chad
Jennifer
12,400 9,200 12,000
6,000 9,200 6,400
18,400 18,400 18,400
min max min max min max
11,600 8,400 6,400 11,200
6,000

If Jennifer is incorrect with that wager, Chad can wager up to 3,600 to stay above her total.

Brennan
Chad
Jennifer
12,400 9,200 12,000
3,600 6,400
5,600 5,600
min max min max min max
11,600 3,600 6,400 11,200
8,400
6,000

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Brennan
Chad
Jennifer
12,400 9,200 12,000
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
11,600 3,600 6,400 11,200
8,400
6,000

Second-order calculations

Third’s max vs. second

Against Jennifer, Chad can wager at most 3,600. With a correct response, he’ll have 12,800.

To cover this, Jennifer should wager at least 800.

Brennan
Chad
Jennifer
12,400 9,200 12,000
3,600 800
12,800 12,800
min max min max min max
11,600 3,600 6,400 11,200
8,400 800
6,000

If she’s wrong with that minimum wager, Jennifer will have 11,200, so Chad should wager at least 2,000.

Brennan
Chad
Jennifer
12,400 9,200 12,000
2,000 800
11,200 11,200
min max min max min max
11,600 2,000 3,600 6,400 11,200
8,400 800
6,000

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Brennan
Chad
Jennifer
12,400 9,200 12,000
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
11,600 2,000 3,600 6,400 11,200
8,400 800
6,000

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Brennan and Jennifer: 400
Brennan and Chad: 3,200
Jennifer and Chad: 2,800

Brennan
Chad
Jennifer
12,400 9,200 12,000
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
11,600 3,200 3,600 6,400 11,200
6,000 6,400 6,400 8,400 800 2,800
400

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Brennan Chad Jennifer
12,400 9,200 12,000
11,601 1,800 11,500
24,001 11,000 23,500
min max min max min max
11,601 3,201 3,599 6,401 11,199
6,001 6,399 6,401 8,399 801 2,799
399

Not sure what Jennifer is doing here, either – but that’s not really a surprise.

Thanks in part to her Christmas present of a Penultimate Wager, Brennan completed his sweep of the week, taking down $126,404.

The Penultimate Wager

Brennan

Chad

Jennifer

12,400 9,200 10,000

It’s the $2000 clue in BRONTE-SAURUS – a category that had given our players problems (they missed the $800, $1200, and $1600 clues).

The right play is to try for first place. I’d go between $2,401 and $3,600 – if she’s wrong with that bigger end, she’ll beat Brennan by a dollar with a zero wager if he goes for the lockout.

With that $2,000 wager, she gains nothing if she’s right and falls to third anyway if she’s wrong. And we all saw how it shook out in the end.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

20th CENTURY SCIENTISTS
EVERYTHING CHANGED IN 1924 AFTER HE OBSERVED, “I HAVE FOUND A CEPHEID VARIABLE IN THE ANDROMEDA NEBULA”
Correct response: Show
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3 Comments
  1. Clive permalink

    Jennifer just made the worst wager ever. Christmas present is right. This is so typical of the wasted efforts so many players make by not taking advantage of the gift that DJ’s represent.

  2. Kelly permalink

    Keith, I agree with your Penultimate Wager analysis for Jennifer. Any wager that keeps her in second will also ensure she’ll be in Stratton’s Dilemma. Therefore like you said she ought to try for the lead, and if she’s wrong with your range then Chad would be in SD making it likely she’d be able to win on a triple stumper with a small enough wager.

    • Kelly permalink

      I also noticed that if ties were still allowed 800 would be a feasible bet – putting her into an evenly-spaced scores situation if right and tied for second if wrong. Alas, not so much a good amount under the tiebreaker rules. (Evenly-spaced scores is the breakpoint between being and not being in Stratton’s Dilemma for 2nd, thus any DD wager from 5-799 keeps Jennifer in SD regardless.)

What do you think?