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June 16, 2015

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

I’m in Atlantic City… and the Wheel of Fortune slot machine hasn’t been friendly to me.

The Final Wager – June 16, 2015

Oh well… there’s always blackjack. And on that note, our returning champ has over 21 (thousand).

Brennan

Bushee

Raf

Noboa y Rivera

Batya

Diamond

21,800 15,000 5,800

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

QUOTABLE PAINTERS

Batya is $1,000 short of being in contention, so we’ll look at just Brennan and Raf.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Raf doubles his score, he’ll have 30,000.

To cover this all-in wager, Brennan will need to wager 8,200.

Brennan
Raf
Batya
21,800 15,000 5,800
8,200 15,000
30,000 30,000
min max min max min max
8,200

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Brennan with 13,600.

To stay above his total, Raf can wager up to 1,400.

Brennan
Raf
Batya
21,800 15,000 5,800
8,200 1,400
13,600 13,600
min max min max min max
8,200 1,400

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Raf makes the rational maximum wager of 1,400, Brennan will need to wager 5,400 to stay above him.

Brennan
Raf
Batya
21,800 15,000 5,800
5,400 1,400
16,400 16,400
min max min max min max
8,200 1,400
5,400

In that case, Raf would have to wager 12,200 and respond correctly. Might as well go all-in at that point.

Brennan
Raf
Batya
21,800 15,000 5,800
5,400 12,200
27,200 27,200
min max min max min max
8,200 1,400
5,400 12,200*

Brennan should cap his wager at 10,200 so as not to let Batya back into the game.

What actually happened

Brennan Raf Batya
21,800 15,000 5,800
8,201 7,500 2,400
30,001 22,500 3,400
min max min max
8,201 10,199 1,399
5,399 15,000

Raf gets the pink because he fails to cover the feasible “small” range out of Brennan. (Were Brennan to wager $5,399, the only way Raf would win is on a solo get.)

I’m sure there will be some discussion of Raf’s playing style – very curt with the numbers and punchy on the correct responses. I found it annoying; anything that calls unwanted attention to a player is a bad thing, in my opinion. (Two? Two hundred? Two thousand?)

Kudos to Brennan for making a sizable wager on his Daily Double. He’s a strong player, having now won 2 games and $57,202.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

QUOTABLE PAINTERS
“A REVIEWER…WROTE THAT MY PICTURES DIDN’T HAVE ANY BEGINNING OR ANY END. HE DIDN’T MEAN IT AS A COMPLIMENT, BUT IT WAS”
Correct response: Show
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