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June 15, 2015

Monday, June 15, 2015

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Dark Lord is back for his fourth game – and a crack at solidifying his TOC potential.

The Final Wager – June 15, 2015

Wow – a really tight game up until the end, when Brennan nabbed a couple of big clues. In any event, all three players could win despite an incorrect answer in Final:

Dark Lord

Harris-Fain

Amy

Merrick

Brennan

Bushee

13,000 13,600 19,000

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

19th CENTURY POETRY

Given that, I’m guessing Dark Lord will push all his chips to the middle. The other players should follow suit to cover him. We’ll go through the calculations anyway.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Amy doubles her score, she’ll have 27,200.

To cover this all-in wager, Brennan will need to wager 8,200.

Dark Lord
Amy
Brennan
13,000 13,600 19,000
13,600 8,200
27,200 27,200
min max min max min max
8,200

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Brennan with 10,800.

To stay above his total, Amy can wager up to 2,800.

Dark Lord can wager up to 2,200.

Dark Lord
Amy
Brennan
13,000 13,600 19,000
2,200 2,800 8,200
10,800 10,800 10,800
min max min max min max
2,200 2,800 8,200

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Dark Lord at 26,000.

To cover this, Amy should wager at least 12,400. In this case, though, she will lose on an incorrect response, so she might as well wager everything.

Dark Lord
Amy
Brennan
13,000 13,600 19,000
13,000 12,400 7,000
26,000 26,000 26,000
min max min max min max
2,200 12,400* 8,200
2,800

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Dark Lord
Amy
Brennan
13,000 13,600 19,000
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
2,200 12,400* 8,200
2,800

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Amy makes the rational maximum wager of 2,800, Brennan will need to wager 2,600 to stay above her. Probably not a good move here.

Dark Lord
Amy
Brennan
13,000 13,600 19,000
2,800 2,600
16,400 16,400
min max min max min max
2,200 12,400* 8,200
2,800
2,600

In that case, Amy would have to wager 8,000 and respond correctly, but she’s already got a logical all-in range.

Dark Lord might consider risking at least 8,600 (read: everything).

Dark Lord
Amy
Brennan
13,000 13,600 19,000
8,600 8,000 2,600
21,600 21,600 21,600
min max min max min max
2,200 12,400* 8,200
8,600* 2,800
2,600

Third’s max vs. first

Amy could cover Dark Lord with a smaller range, if she’s willing to take the risk.

Dark Lord
Amy
Brennan
13,000 13,600 19,000
2,200 1,600
15,200 15,200
min max min max min max
2,200 12,400* 8,200
8,600* 1,600 2,800
2,600

Dark Lord should cap his wager at 1,000.

Dark Lord
Amy
Brennan
13,000 13,600 19,000
1,000 1,600
12,000 12,000
min max min max min max
1,000 12,400* 8,200
8,600* 1,600 2,800
2,200 2,600

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Dark Lord
Amy
Brennan
13,000 13,600 19,000
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
1,000 12,400* 8,200
8,600* 1,600 2,800
2,200 2,600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Brennan and Amy: 5,400
Brennan and Dark Lord: 6,000
Amy and Dark Lord: 600

Dark Lord
Amy
Brennan
13,000 13,600 19,000
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
600 1,000 12,400* 8,200 10,800
1,200 2,200 1,600 2,800
8,600* 2,600

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Dark Lord Amy Brennan
13,000 13,600 19,000
12,500 12,401 8,201
25,500 26,001 27,201
min max min max min max
601 999 13,600 8,201 10,799
1,201 2,199 1,601 2,799
13,000 2,599

Dark Lord’s reign comes to an end, but not before he takes home $63,000. Great work!

Brennan came to play, though, amassing that total without the benefit of a Daily Double. We’ll see how he does tomorrow!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

19th CENTURY POETRY
HE RHYMED THE TITLE CHARACTER OF ONE OF HIS BEST-KNOWN POEMS WITH “DREW ON,” “THREW ON” AND “RUIN”
Correct response: Show
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One Comment
  1. Aaron Fisher permalink

    Just FYI: Dava-Leigh Brush is currently sitting in 1y place on the TOC Standings.

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