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May 29, 2015

Friday, May 29, 2015

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So many parts of tonight’s game were utterly absurd. Maybe I need to drink again tonight.

The Final Wager – May 29, 2015

Let’s start with Alex’s introduction. C’mon, man – you don’t need to give away Dan’s wagering strategies! (Or maybe he really hates me and wanted to put me on some needles.)

There we saw his terrible segue into Andrew’s interview segment about proposing in a graveyard because he wanted his girlfriend’s late relatives to participate in their union. Alex assumed that he was a weirdo, and made a really beautiful story tremendously awkward. Then the Semper Fi for Autumn.

Then a $4,000 wager on a Daily Double, and another DD wager to pull into a tie(!) with very little time remaining, then a $4,000 swing on the last clue. (THAT NUMBER)

Anyway, this is straightforward. /rant

Dan

Feitel

Autumn

Swinford

Andrew

Lasken

11,200 5,400 7,200

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Andrew doubles his score, he’ll have 14,400.

To cover this all-in wager, Dan will need to wager 3,200.

Dan
Autumn
Andrew
11,200 5,400 7,200
3,200 7,200
14,400 14,400
min max min max min max
3,200

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Dan with 8,000.

To get above his total, Andrew and Autumn must respond correctly to have a shot, so all-in is the way to go.

Dan
Autumn
Andrew
11,200 5,400 7,200
3,200 2,600 800
8,000 8,000 8,000
min max min max min max
3,200 2,600* 800*

Andrew should wager at least 3,600 to cover Autumn.

Dan
Autumn
Andrew
11,200 5,400 7,200
400 5,400 3,600
10,800 10,800 10,800
min max min max min max
3,200 2,600* 3,600*
400

What actually happened

Dan Autumn Andrew
11,200 5,400 7,200
3,201 5,400 4,001
14,401 0 3,199
min max
3,201 3,999 5,400 7,200
399

I am tempted to give Autumn a yellow or something there, but since Alex spilled the beans, it was unlikely that she would cost herself too much. Still, maybe holding back the $2 wouldn’t have hurt.

Andrew gets a pink because he doesn’t cover that unlikely 399 wager out of Dan (to guarantee he doesn’t lose to Autumn.)

Dan has now won 4 games and $99,999. Nice total – almost as good as Vaughn Winchell’s $103,103.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

COLLEGES & UNIVERSITIES
MENS ET MANUS, “MIND AND HAND”, IS THE MOTTO OF THIS UNIVERSITY WHOSE ALUMNI INCLUDE I.M. PEI, AMAR BOSE AND RICHARD FEYNMAN
Correct response: Show
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4 Comments
  1. Aaron Fisher permalink

    Funny thing – I’m glad I wasn’t at Andrew’s podium today. With the tough FJ category, I would have stood pat and put all my eggs in Dan’s ambitious wagering streak continuing. Boy, would I have looked stupid.

    But I think that it was the highest EV play from a poker player’s perspective despite being abyssmal from a game theorist’s.

    Either way, Dan has to get it wrong. Assuming he does, I think it’s more likely that Dan wagers irrationally than that I get it right. What were the odds that today’s the day he leaves $7,998 on the table?

    • Not sure what you’re suggesting – Andrew still had to get it right to win given Dan’s wager (he would have lost by $799 had he stood pat). And with either wager Andrew will win with a double stumper if Dan misses.

      • Aaron Fisher permalink

        Yeah, I’m discussing a play that would have worked out horribly. Given Dan’s past wagers, I really didn’t think he’d wager 3,201. Even the 4,799 wager seemed more likely since. It turns out I was completely wrong.

  2. Dean permalink

    Mens “AND” manus? not Mens “ET” manus?

What do you think?